Joe’s Weather World: Last weekend of summer will be wet! (SAT-9/21)
Happy Saturday…the forecast which has been a tough one is going to mostly work out it appears…there is rain developing now towards the west of the Metro…and southwest as well that will be moving in towards and after lunch. Then there should be some breaks in the rain after that before the main show moves in overnight into Sunday. That will be the heaviest part of the storm from a rain standpoint it appears. Flash flooding is the main issue as well for the KC Metro area.
Monday is the 1st day of fall here. It starts early in the morning and it appears Monday will be VERY nice as we start to dry things out.
Today: Cloudy and mild. Highs holding in the 70s…breezy too. Rain will be moving into the area as the late morning moves along. Some thunder/lightning will be possible for a few hours…then there may be another break in the mid>late afternoon though mid evening with only scattered activity. There may be a few thin spots in the clouds as well.
Tonight: Storms will fire off towards the west and northwest of KC…then come our way…slow down…and dump heavy rain overnight into Sunday morning. Lows near 70°
Sunday: Rain/Storms through mid-day affecting tailgating and possibly the 1st half as well. Temperatures may fall as the day goes along into the 60s and have a tough time recovering even after the rain into the lower 70s.
Monday: Perfect. Cool in the morning…near 55° with delightful temperatures in the afternoon with highs 75-80°
I’ve written and discussed on the air every possible angle to this weekend system all week long. Look at some of the past blogs for that information…so this blog will basically be an update with radar and model data.
Let’s start with radar…
and from a regional standpoint…
As I type this you can see the rains developing and moving towards the NE. In time it will make it into the KC area and a wetter late morning and early afternoon is on tap.
Short range data indicates that this activity should shift east of the Metro after 2PM or so…and there maybe a significant lull in the rain after that for about 6 hours or so. There may be scattered activity out there but it appears that steadier stuff will be farther towards the MO side of the area.
Then we wait for overnight activity.
Farther west the sun will be out…and stronger storms will develop along a slow moving cold front which this morning is in the western Plains region…west of central KS.
Ahead of the front a rich flow of moisture is streaming northwards. We know how humid it’s been lately…dew points well in the 60s to lower 70s or so.
Aloft though the atmosphere is swollen with moisture. This is show by looking at the Precipitable Water (PW) which indicates how much moisture is available for this system
See those values near and greater that 1.5″…that is a LOT of moisture…I mean a LOT. I looked at the Topeka data this morning and they are showing over 2″ of PW…that has NEVER happened before on this data in data going back to 1955. As a matter of fact that beefy amount or more has only occurred 2 other times after today’s date. HIGHLY unusual.
When unusual things set-up and you dig through the data…usually unusual things happen in the end…and that is the concern for tonight into tomorrow AM.
Off towards the west of here…where storms will initially come together later today…severe weather is possible…mainly winds and some hail.
That area will organize and eventually come towards the KC area later tonight…probably after 11PM or so…
That’s the reason why we have a FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect for the area…
The lighter green are flood warnings for the MO River. All the rains up across the northern Plains lately are draining south now and elevating the MO River once again into minor flood stages. For the MO River in far NW MO…they are in moderate flood however.
Finally here is a look at the short term model…the HRRR that should auto update for you through the weekend.
OK that’s it for today…it won’t be terrible but there will be rain for several hours.
Our feature photo comes from Megan Becker-Morris out in Lexington, MO