Joe’s Weather World: A lull (for now) in the rain and a real fall front coming (SUN-9/29)

I’d say the weekend forecast played out very nicely from a rain standpoint. The heavy rains that moved through the region yesterday afternoon were well predicted and thankfully we didn’t have the severe weather concerns. The front that moved through the area Friday night stalled towards Harrisonville and didn’t retreat north during the day. That kept KC cooler…but helped to create some drenching rains and flooding in parts of the area. Harrisonville had almost 4″ of rain in a couple of hours yesterday.

This morning northern MO is getting a ton of rain…and that’s where the flooding is to start Sunday. KC is now in the warm sector of the things as the front as retreated northwards now and it’s going to be very warm and muggy for the next couple of days before a stronger front comes in during the middle of the week. So the A/C’s work hard again and then they get a big break starting Wednesday



  • Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy, breezy and warm with highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Muggy with lows near 70°

Tomorrow: Hot and humid by late September standards with highs 85-90. Windy too

Tuesday: Ditto…some lower 90s in spots with heat index values near 95° and windy



  • Discussion:

So much rain…let’s start there.

Another almost 2 1/3″ yesterday…1 3/4″ or so the day before…leading to this.

We missed a daily record by .01″ yesterday…

 

For the month so far we’re now up to 6.82″ including the overnight storms up at KCI.

That now brings the yearly total to 48.86″…with the rain from overnight. IF the year ended today…that would bring our ranking to 12th place for any year.

but alas there is still 3 months of precip to go..and more is coming. There is another way of looking at all this moisture…there is always another way(!). It’s looking at the “water year”. The AMS defines a “water year” as

“It commences with the start of the season of soil moisture recharge, includes the season of maximum runoff (or season of maximum groundwater recharge), if any, and concludes with the completion of the season of maximum evapotranspiration (or season of maximum soil moisture utilization).”

So this water year is #1…and the stark difference between #1 and #2 is pretty pronounced (add another .28″ to the data below for this water year with the overnight data…so in reality we’re now up to 64.26″…over 5 FEET of moisture.

There are areas that have had even more than that…perhaps close to 6 FEET of moisture!

That is astounding

Then there is this way of looking at all that moisture…

I used 65″ as a total to calculate that…so perhaps we’re a bit short of that…but we’re close!

So much water.

The water year ends tomorrow…here is the ranking area wide in terms of rain so far this year…those green boxes show top 10 rnakings for most precipititon.

This month so far has been very warm needless to say and these next couple of days will be the cherry on top with average temperatures some 15° above average each day. IF you ever wanted to know what life was like in Wilmington, NC during September…our September is KC has been just like them (on average)

So far we’re tied for the 11th warmest September. We’ll keep going up though before the month is done.

The changes though are coming as the system that is responsible for this in the northern Rockies…

moves through the upper Midwest.

The main issue we’ll have is more rain…and a strong cold front that will sweep the heat of the next 3 days away by Wednesday.

OH and there’s something else to watch…moisture from a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific…

That moisture will start streaming into Mexico tomorrow…then into the southern Plains and eastern Rockies Tuesday and up into the Plains later Tuesday…that means when the cold front arrives Wednesday there will be a decent amount of upper level and low level moisture for it to work with…so yeah…more rain. Oh and with the front oozing towards AR on Thursday…and us still in SW flow aloft…meaning additional disturbances coming over the front…and moving towards KC…there is potential for more rain Thursday on the EURO at least in the morning.

1-3+” more of rain is possible.

My goodness.

But look at the changes after Tuesday (note: Wednesday will be cooler than shown below).

Goodbye summer! Hello real FALL! I’m not totally confident that the warm days are done with though…the EURO did sort of go on a tangent last night so we may not be done with 80s yet…but after Tuesday they’re days are numbered.

Our feature photo comes from Lesa Wardrip‎ up in Parkville

Joe

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