Joe’s Weather World: Lots of wind…some rain…but overall not too bad (FRI-10/18)

Good Friday to you…while everyone today will be waiting to hear about the status of a certain knee on a football team…I’ll be keeping an eye on the winds this afternoon and how strong they end up getting. The air above us this morning is already blowing from the south to the north at 35-45 MPH or so…and it will be a matter of time before we see some of this air “mix” down towards the surface. Odds favor this happening during the afternoon…and that’s when we should see 25-40 MPH gusts.

The air for now is pretty dry too…dew points are in the 40s and won’t go up much today…



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, windy and mild with highs 75-78°. Wind gusts to 40+ MPH possible. A wind advisory is in effect for areas west and northwest of KC (as of this morning).

Tonight: Increasing clouds with some rain possible towards and after 12AM. There won’t be a lot of rain (in terms of totals). Lows down to near 50°

Saturday: Some lingering rain drops around (should be more drizzly/misty) through at least 10AM…so damp conditions for the marathon…then gradual clearing with highs 60-65°. It will be a chilly morning with the damp conditions though.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and breezy. Rain chances return towards the evening. Highs in the mid>upper 60s



  • Discussion:

The theme to the blogs this week has been more or less…typical fall conditions around KC…and that will again be the case today. I’ve hit the winds situation pretty hard this week and today the winds will be increasing all morning into the afternoon.

These seasonal transitions are typically filled with windy conditions…tomorrow won’t be too bad in that department…but Sunday and Monday will be breezy to blustery again.

Despite the various rain chances over the next few days…the amounts don’t look to be too excessive…probably the two systems combined bring most areas under 3/4″…the better totals may come on Sunday night…that is a stronger front. We’ll have to see how that sets up.

The NAM model has this idea for rain totals between the 2 systems…

The bulk of that comes on Sunday night and early Monday.

A lot of things happening this weekend…I think the only issue could be some lingering raindrops around tomorrow AM…beyond that we should be in pretty good shape until Sunday evening.

I’m not overly thrilled about the severe weather chances locally with the Sunday night system…there is a “marginal” risk of severe storms south of the KC area though…again this would be after sunset on Sunday based on the current timing of things.

The Sunday night system will be connected to a seasonably strong storm that will be moving across the upper Midwest in the upper levels of the atmosphere…

Behind that storm there will be gusty west winds on Monday and leaves will be flying around the area. Gusts may approach about 30 MPH or so…

Elsewhere you may start hearing about a newly developed tropical system towards the Gulf Of Mexico…this may become Nestor sometime today or tonight…

The winds won’t get too high with this…and there might be some surge into NW FL with it…but the main thing will be rain…which actually is a good thing for that part of the country because they’ve been fighting very dry conditions…drought conditions for a couple of months…

As a matter of fact “exceptional” drought is apparent in parts of GA…as well as AL and SC…

So yes to rain…but the better rains may miss the worst of the drought areas…

So this may mostly be a miss towards northern GA…and most of AL…

Finally…I showed this on my FB page…but here is the official winter forecast from NOAA issued yesterday. Remember they do a probability based forecast…I’m not a fan…but whatever…

 

Data pix.

So for sun let's look at LAST years winter forecast from a temperature standpoint...

and reality...

Not so great...a total whiff for most of the upper Midwest and western US...the large area in the SE was "equal chances" in the forecast...reality was well above average temperatures...

In terms of precipitation...

Not so great either...they had an "idea" about the southern US heavy precip amounts but again..."equal chances" for most of the area that was pounded by a ton of moisture isn't very accurate.

I do like the fact the forecasters do a seasonal recap though...

OK that's it for today...no blog tomorrow...have a great weekend.

The feature photo today is the great sunrise from this morning...out towards Longview Lake...

Joe

 

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