October snow doesn’t seem all that rare when you think about recent memory. Last year comes to mind immediately. One of the biggest things that comes to mind close to that is the “October Surprise.” I would like to start by saying nothing I’m seeing at the moment looks anything like that.
We’re in for a colder spell during the final week of October. That by itself is no issue, but when you add a couple of different systems and pair them with good timing, we have chances for wintry precipitation in the forecast. The first system looks very minor in terms of those chances for accumulation, the second may be a bit different. Let’s break them both down for you below.
Monday afternoon/evening we’re looking at some light rain developing. Temperatures will remain above freezing for your commute and most of the evening. In the overnight hours, there’s enough colder air that looks to feed in behind this system that it looks like it will change the rain to snow briefly. Areas in northern MO may get some brief accumulation on the grass, but most of us look to avoid the wintry precip during this time frame.
By late Wednesday, however, some colder air looks to migrate into the metro to make things a bit more tricky. With this being several days out, these temperatures still have the potential to waver 2 or 3 degrees either way. This will make a significant difference in terms of what precipitation your area receives…and when!
With temps between 32-39 depending on where you’re at (as I’ve highlighted above,) this is going to have an impact on when the rain transitions to snow in your area. Once it’s cold enough for a longer period of time, it may stick to the grass first before anything else. At this point, it’s becoming increasingly likely we’ll deal with SOME measurable snowfall in portions of the metro. Does that mean we need to be worried about a lot of accumulating snow, school closings, or buying stock in bread and milk? Absolutely not! We’ll have a better idea of where that colder air line sets up as the date gets closer. This is more of a mental preparation for a cold week and the possibility of flakes flying during trick or treat time.