Joe’s Weather World: Surging Canadian and Arctic air masses (TUE-11/5)

A somewhat brighter day is on tap for the region today but there will again be some clouds streaming through the region every so often…at least there won’t be much wind today so it should be somewhat comfortable out there. The main theme to the forecast into the next 10 days or so are repeated shots of cold air with origins towards the far northern reaches of Canada if not into the Arctic.

The saving grace is that we don’t have a lot of snow on the ground from here into Canada so the really cold for November air masses will modify somewhat but it’s still going to be well below average for the region.



  • Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and cool but OK with highs into the mid 50s

Tonight: Fair and seasonable with lows closer to 40° with steadier AM temperatures

Tomorrow: Breezy and warmer with clouds moving up from the south. Highs 60-65°. IF we get enough sunshine…there is some upside.

Wednesday night: Some light showers are possible and turning colder…

Thursday: Perhaps a few early AM flakes then clearing and cold. Blustery with this in the 30s but it will feel colder than that.



  • Discussion:

It’s interesting to see the air masses developing and flow southwards…one thing for sure…we’re going to see more shots of cold air masses coming southwards…

As I mentioned earlier and as is typical in early November…there isn’t a lot of snow on the ground from here north to the US/Canadian border region right now…so the coldness of the air tend to modify somewhat as it comes southwards.

IF you go farther north and tilt your head to the side…here is a look up towards the north.

So these cold air masses that are borne up there…where the daylight is getting shorter and shorter…move southwards but since there isn’t snow on the ground now…they tend to lose the worst of their cold.

Take this scenario that we saw last week and what’s ahead…and we’re looking at the real potential of sub-zero cold weather locally during the dead of winter…but again that won’t be the case this time through.

There are at least two coming…one later Wednesday into Thursday…we can see that clearly when we go up to about 5,000 feet or so and look at how the air temperatures are relative to average. Here is the map for Thursday.

The bulk of the worst cold, relative to average is sort of shunted towards the upper Midwest…we get a good shot here for THU>FRI but then we moderate quickly Friday night into Saturday ahead of plunge #2.

That one may be colder and closer to the KC area…the map above is for later Monday.

It too will be a transient shot of cold weather.

This one though appears to be a colder shot than the one on Thursday. As a matter of fact there is a way I can show you where the air that will be coming…this would be for 8AM Monday…and the chart shows that the air on top of KC will be coming from the far NW reaches of Canada…

So the air will be cold…but again without having snow on the ground from here northwards to the Canadian border it will modify somewhat as it comes southbound. Again though…still cold…like 30s for highs cold..and potentially teens on Tuesday AM depending on the winds/clouds etc.

So that’s the bigger picture.

Now about the smaller picture…tomorrow and Thursday.

Wednesday should be a nice warm-up day ahead of the cold front that will move into the area later in the afternoon/evening. We’d be primed to have a day with highs close to 65° too but there won’t be a lot of wind ahead of the front and I have concerns that moisture to the south of here, towards the TX/OK border is going to try and come northbound and be a thorn in our side during the day. Some areas will be affected for sure…

As this moisture moves close…and the front cuts underneath this moisture…that is a good recipe for at least some rain/drizzle Wednesday evening and overnight…then with the colder air coming in…perhaps some snowflakes could be created…again that is a rather iffy play-out right now because assuming the cold air blasts into the area it may sweep away the moisture so quickly to the south that there isn’t time to get snow to form. Regardless it doesn’t look like an impactful set-up for the area.

We’re cold Thursday…closer to 40° for highs and then potentially warm up to the low>mid 40s on Friday.

I can’t rule out some curiosity flurries on Sunday with the next cold air delivery…plunge #2. Again it doesn’t look like a lot.

By no means is this a wet pattern…odds favor less than 1/2″ of moisture between now and the 20th or so.

Our feature shot of the day comes from Clayton Newkirk down in Bates County, MO. There have been some great sunrise/sets lately!

Joe

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