Joe’s Weather World: Arctic blast and incoming snow risk (SUN-11/10)

Wanted to get an updated blog out for you today…since I’m watching the snow risk for tomorrow closely…because depending on how things set up with the plunging temperatures and possible band of snow moving through…there may be some road issues before lunch Monday.

The main thing will be the cold air that is slowly seeping into the region today but will more or less blast into the area overnight into Monday morning with falling temperatures…strong winds…and possible some snow.

  • Forecast:

Rest of today: Sunny skies and not bad with highs in the near 60 or so…warmer on the south side.

Tonight: Increasing clouds and blustery with temperatures dropping into the 20s by daybreak. Winds increasing to 20-30 MPH.

Monday: Cloudy with some flurries or light snow bands moving through before lunch. Some accumulations are possible <1″ and this may create some slick road conditions. What falls though will be blowing around on the pavement with gusty N winds of 25+ MPH.

Tuesday: Bitterly cold by November standards in the morning…near 10° with cold weather in the afternoon with highs near 30°

  • Discussion:

Let’s start out with a couple of surface maps…one is for our area at 11AM this morning. Temperatures are in RED.

The front is south of KC…but because of the sunshine and the real cold air being north of the region…see second map…today is turning out OK. We also started the day in the lower 40s and despite the NE wind direction…we’re still sort of warming up.

Not like yesterday…65°!

Now take a look at this map…there’s your arctic breed air coming southwards…

Look at the teens up towards ND…

That cold air will be driven southwards but a strong, by November standards) area of high pressure that will allow this dense cold air mass to flow south as it moves through the upper Midwest into the Central Plains region tomorrow into Tuesday. So that by Tuesday morning the core of the high pressure area is virtually on top of the region.

Then it moves away and we sort of start moderating…that will do it for the arctic air masses for awhile I think.

Now to the snow risk.

The front that moved through has come through dry obviously…but if you look north on the satellite picture you can see a lot of moisture in the form of clouds…

From those clouds there is a somewhat large area of flurries and light snow north into SD/ND…this next map highlights the light snow areas (-SN) and the temperatures in blue. I looked father and there are some 1/2-1 1/2 mile visibilities up there so there is some decent snow too falling.


There are two things that will happen overnight…

Clouds will rapidly form from near KC and southwards tonight…probably after 9PM or so. These clouds may at some point produce some light rain. Most of this will be light and mostly south of KC.

As this happens the band of snow towards the upper Midwest will be sliding south. This is what we need to watch more overnight. How it holds together will be the key to tomorrow.

The HRRR model shows this.

For timing purposes…21Z is 3PM…0Z is 6PM…3Z is 9PM…6Z is 12AM and 9Z is 3AM. This data should auto-update today and tonight.

Snow will start moving into northern MO after 12AM…and gradually slide south overnight and move into the Metro before daybreak…

Temperatures by daybreak will be closer to 30…if not colder…

Now it’s increasingly possible that snow or some sort of wintry mix is falling for tomorrow morning…it should start sticking pretty quickly and that presents problems. The roads should still have some warmth in them…but the thing is the temperatures may continue to drop as all this happens…so we may start daybreak in the mid>upper 20s and drop to the 20-25° range before lunch. IF we’re still getting snow…and IF those temperatures are realistic…I get concerned about flash freezing potential especially on bridges and overpasses. This could really create some headaches for travel tomorrow if the roads are not treated.

Temperatures may then go up a few degrees in the afternoon as skies clear out before plunging tomorrow night into Tuesday morning.

The key will be how well the snow bands organize as they come southwards.

Overall accumulations should be under 1″ or so…

So tomorrow may turn out to be more problematic that it appears a couple of days ago.

Our feature photo today comes from ‎Stacie Giglio Sipes up in Liberty…we’ve had more great sunsets/rises lately.










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1 Comment

  • Kaden

    Good Sunday to you Joe!
    In regards to the possible snow is chance tonight, how is the setup looking right now? Looking at the models it looks like the storm is well organized in Nebraska through Iowa, but as it edges closer to KC it falls apart? Why is this? Does dry air suddenly filter in down here but not up north?

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