Joe’s Weather World: A more active week of weather (MON-11/18)

This week won’t be overly cold but there will be a couple of chilly days…it won’t be overly wet…but there will be some rainy times…and it won’t be overly warm…but there will be a few warm afternoons…overall a lot happening this week…the trick is how warm we get…and how much rain we can see.

Today could really warm up…but there is an issue with the clouds streaming this way…potentially even a few sprinkles/showers this afternoon as well. IF we didn’t have the clouds…we’d be in the 60s…most of the clouds are above 10,000 feet…and there is a lot of dry air below those clouds…so rain may be tough to come by but it is something to note.



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and milder with highs 55-60°…there may be a few sprinkles/light showers out there somewhere.

Tonight: Fair skies and not too bad with highs near 40°

Tomorrow: More sunshine and milder with highs 60-65°

Wednesday: Milder and a bit more humid too. Rain chances increase later in the day and into the night. Highs into the 60s but staying warm overnight into early Thursday before dropping.



  • Discussion:

See yesterday’s blog for a full playout of how the next rain maker affects us later Wednesday into Thursday.

This blog will update that information…

Yesterday I mentioned that there might be some upside to the rain potential…yesterday I was shooting for 1/3″>1″ or so…but there might be an issue…and that despite a good swath of atmospheric moisture coming our way…the “lift” to that moisture isn’t exactly the most overwhelming. That combined with the fast movement and the somewhat more northwest of KC focus to the lift has me a bit leery of going to high with the rain amounts…this though should be our best rain maker since early October though. Hopefully at least a 1/4″ of rain…and I do think there will be more…but there was a model decrease overnight in the totals from yesterday…

From the EURO model…

and the GFS…

I still think my thoughts on 1/3″>1″ though are still good ones…but it’s something to watch.

The other main effect from this incoming storm will be warmer air…and some surface moisture return in the form of higher dew points. Although right now the dew points towards the Gulf of Mexico area are only in the low>mid 50s…those dew points will come northbound later Tuesday into Wednesday night…and that could help the rain situation as well.

Whatever happens later Wednesday…appears to be a quick mover…so again while I want to keep that range of rain totals in there…odds may favor the lower side of those ideas instead of the upper range.

Also of note for Wednesday will be the gustier winds too…but again a warmer wind.

That system flies by early Thursday and a cold front slides through 1st thing in the morning. Whatever we are at midnight…perhaps near 60° or so…will be the day’s high. We likely will only be in the 40s for the daylight hours Thursday with blustery conditions.

There will be a 2nd part of this though…and that will be the main upper level storm that I talked about yesterday. That will be coming perilously close to KC on Friday night into Saturday AM…and when it does get here the atmosphere will be colder. That means there is a chance of some sort of wintry mix or snow scenario (likely light) to come into play before the weekend gets here…

Once again 2 models do this and one does not. Take a guess which doesn’t…the GFS. Seems like we’ve already been down this road before and that didn’t seem to work out too well if I remember correctly. The Canadian and the EURO, while the timing is a bit different both have at least some snow locally sometime later Friday into Saturday morning. The GFS isn’t really close to this idea at all.

The model data though seems to be anonymous in having more active weather with potential snow threats into Thanksgiving week somewhere in the Plains area. It’s something to start paying attention too as the this week moves along.

Our feature photo comes from Nathan Buhrmester who mentioned how his family loves the blog…

Joe

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