Joe’s Weather World: Thanksgiving week storm(s) but mainly rain for us (MON-11/25)

Do you remember what happened one year ago today…we had our Thanksgiving weekend blizzard. 4-9″ of snow with driving winds and dangerous road conditions. We started that Sunday  early morning around 50° and plummeted from there. The rain>snow changeover happened during our morning news…and then it really snowed hard and fast.

This week…our temperatures will be all over the place and the weather all over the place. A cold front is coming through today…but the cooler air is lagging behind. Yesterday we hit 62°…today we should be well into the 50s to near 60° with quite a bit of sunshine. Tomorrow we may be as warm, especially on the south side as the front which will be to our south tomorrow AM retreats northbound as a warm front.

Then it get shoves back to the south…and that is just the beginning.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies with some filtered sunshine at times. Pleasant with highs near 60°

Tonight: A bit cooler with some clouds…not too bad…lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers…perhaps some drizzle and mist too. Highs for most of the day in the 40s BUT we may pop into the 50s tomorrow evening briefly as a warm front pops north…then drop later in the evening as a cold front flies through. Can’t help but wonder if there are a few storms with that front from KC southwards through the Lakes.

Wednesday: Dry and blustery in the morning with cooler weather in the afternoon. Highs closer to 40°



  • Discussion:

A lot happening this week.

Item #1 is a cold front…again the colder air is lagging behind this…like into the upper Midwest lagging. The temperatures are in red the the map below

 

 

That front will move towards the I-44 corridor tonight and stall…the retreat northbound tomorrow.

So that by later tomorrow morning we have this set-up…

That warm front will come up to about KC…maybe a bit farther north and put at least part of the area, especially eastern KS and western MO in the warm sector. That means that areas from KC southeast may see temperatures go up in the evening…into the 50s while areas farther northwest are closer to 40°. So a 20°+ spread is possible in the area tomorrow evening.

The cold front will sweep through tomorrow late evening and send temperatures down again. This time for a couple of days though.

It will rain and while many areas NW of KC won’t get a lot from this…IF there is some convection, especially SE of KC…some areas could see 1/2″+ in the fast moving storms. The storms may be moving at close to 60 MPH so when that happens I can’t rule out maybe a brief wind gust to near severe levels somewhere out there on the MO side especially.

As far as the snow/traveling situation goes…well areas farther NW of the region are going to see a winter storm…

Here is what the NWS is thinking as of this morning…

Many of those watches will be converted to warnings at some point…

Pretty big snowstorm for the Denver area…

 

Towards Omaha…worst is NW of there…

Towards Des Moines…worst is NW of there too…

So that would be storm #1…

Wednesday is fine for travel regionally across MO and KS.

Storm #2 is slated for Thanksgiving…that for KC at least looks to be a wintry mix converting over to rain. See yesterday’s blog for that information. Right now I’m not too concerned about too many issues but lets watch the timing of the onset of the wintry mix in case we get a few slick spots to develop. Earlier timing would lead to perhaps a few issues but data supports whatever coming up from the SW coming towards and after lunch…so the roads should be a few degrees above 32°.

As far as the lighting goes…while I can’t rule out some light misty type stuff…we should be dry slotting above us…so that would shut down the heavier rains. This could be a decent precip maker for a good part of the area… 1/4″-1″ possible…just bad timing for the holiday. Of note is the potential of some slick roads across northern MO for a bit longer…maybe.

Then the main storm comes our way on Friday…that means more rain…perhaps another 1/2″-1.5″ of rain too. We go through the cycle of trying to warm up again with a Friday night and/early Saturday high before temperatures drop again. Probably worth mentioning that some severe weather can’t be ruled out with this one…somewhere in the Plains.

So a lot happening over the next 5 days…colder weather for later Saturday into Sunday too. Sunday may be really chilly with wind as well. Then we moderate the temperatures later Monday into Tuesday.

There is a lot going on to the west of the region…and that is why things will remain active…another month down the road and odds are some of that snow would be farther south…

OK that’s it for today…

Don’t forget the winter forecast is tomorrow night during Fox 4 News at 9PM.

 

Our feature photo is from Scott Kranz showing the planets last night including Venus…lower left and Jupiter upper right.

Joe

 

 

 

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