Joe’s Weather World: Powerful cyclone moves through tonight (TUE-11/26)

A nice run of weather over the past couple of days…lower 60s on Sunday…near 60° yesterday…and really today won’t be overly cold but it will feel cooler with the winds blowing out there…it also won’t be overly wet…although some afternoon mist/drizzle is possible. There will be a rapidly intensifying storm taking shape in the Plains today…and passing near or north of the Metro. Air pressure readings on the barometer will be tanking as the day moves along.

Tomorrow is fine for traveling…it will be a recovery day for most of the Plains well north and west of KC where heavy snow will be falling.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: A brief chance of some fast moving thunderstorms…especially on the MO side…the turning very(!) windy. Gusts may be in the 40-50 MPH range and turning chilly with lows near 30°. HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED

Tomorrow: Overall OK with cool weather…highs in the 40-45° range

Thanksgiving: Developing clouds>rain. Perhaps a brief period of sleet at first depending on how quickly we see precipitation develop in the morning. Raw and not so pleasant with highs in the mid-upper 30s. There won’t be a lot of rain…mostly drizzle and mist



  • Discussion:

An interesting weather day today as a rather strong surface cyclone develops in the Plains and moves towards the immediate north of the KC area. This will allow the front which came through yesterday and is south of the area to retreat northwards later this afternoon and evening as a warm front.

The air pressure will be dropping as the day goes…as I start this blog we’re sitting at around 29.60″ at KCI…but tonight it may be down to about 20.30″…pretty low air pressure all because of a developing storm.

At 8AM…we have a developing warm front south of the area…

We have cooler NE winds blowing into our area this morning. How far north that warm front gets today will be the crux to the evening temperature forecasts. Farther north…we get warmer and it’s likely the highs for today be be after dark.

The surface storm is going to strengthen today…and move northeast into northern MO.

A cold front will develop as well. The storm is bringing colder air down and wrapping it around the low pressure. So tonight we have roughly this look from the HRRR model…

For timing…18Z is 12PM…3Z is 9PM…6Z is 12AM and 9Z is 3AM…

Yet despite all this happening we may not get much rain from this…but we will get the wind overnight.

So by 8PM…the warm front should be just north of the I-70 corridor…the cold front is still to the west of here…

Then by 12AM…here comes the winds..actually a couple of hours earlier…these are gusts…

So despite all this…not much rain from the entire storm…

The other thing to watch is the risk for some VERY fast moving storms…there is a lot of wind shear in the atmosphere and there is a risk that some of those winds may create some fast moving storms before 10PM…the focus appears to be more on the MO side east of KC…but something to watch.

There is a risk of tornadoes out towards central MO and eastwards into western IL as well…

That 5% risk is rather big considering the time of the year.

Something else to watch…especially near and east of 65 highway into central MO.

Much farther northwest…more snow is expected…

This is the same storm that’s hitting CO…Ft Collins got hammered and its not so great in the Denver area…

Messy for sure…Boulder is up to 14″ and Ft Collins had that much last night when it was still pouring snow.

There is an even stronger storm that will develop and rapidly intensity along the Oregon coast…sort of a NW USA version of a bomb cyclone…that may be powerful enough to set new air pressure readings in the month of November out there

That storm will affect the region Friday into early Saturday

So much happening…our feature photo is from the other day via Charlene Sherman on twitter.

Joe

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