Joe’s Weather World: Inconvenient Thanksgiving system…bigger one Friday (WED-11/27)

Yesterday was a fascinating and frustrating day all at the same time for me personally. The issue had to do with the temperatures because I was expecting a brief surge of warmer air to come up into the area and then get swept away. So on Tuesday night I pushed our highs well into the 50s for late yesterday and early yesterday evening before dropping with the strong winds coming through.

In the end this forecast (since KCI is official for KCI) was an extreme bust. KCI only hit 43°. The fascinating and frustrating part was that Lees Summit hit 57° and Pleasant Hill hit 55°. The warm front managed to get into the southern part of the Metro and stopped. Heck Gardner got into the lower 50s too. It was drizzly and misty from the Metro northwards which was expected…but it hung on for a few extra hours.

The winds…and the rain were expected but a big temperature bust for sure.

Onwards…



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and blustery, although the winds will not be as strong in the afternoon. Highs 40-45°

Tonight: Increasing clouds with lows in the 25-30° range.

Tomorrow: Precip coming up from the southwest and a wintry mix is still possible at the onset depending on how quickly the precip gets up to us. The issue is that we may start the day with readings 25-28° and only slowly warm up as the morning moves along. So what falls may create a few slick spots somewhere in the region IF it comes early enough. The longer that aspect waits (the precipitation) the less likely this could be an issue. A cold raw off and on rain is coming tomorrow afternoon.

Friday: Steadier and at times heavier rains. Not a good day overall but not as raw and cold…highs in the mid 40s and we’ll go up later Friday evening into early Saturday.

Saturday: Not too bad actually…well into the 50s

Sunday: Colder again and blustery with chilly weather for the game and mostly cloudy skies…perhaps a few snow flurries too for added ambiance.



  • Discussion:

We’re now in the exiting phase of one powerful surface low pressure…and will see a weaker system come our way for Thanksgiving.

When one thinks of yesterday’s storm…remember that it was being tracked near Russia 10 days ago or so…it’s impressive to see it play out…and what a storm it was…all that snow and wind. There was severe weather towards western IL and over 2 feet of snow in CO. Denver’s season is already up to over 25″…after what happened yesterday.

Meanwhile yesterday’s system was an impressive snow maker…

Should be an impressive satellite image when the clouds clear out and the snow reveals itself.

 

The winds were impressive…in some cases meeting the criteria for a severe storm…

There may have been some stronger winds in spots after that tweet from the NWS…

Interesting to me that the strongest winds occurred in the area that got the warmest…mostly south of 435 on the south side…heck Clinton yesterday was almost 70° and Sedalia hit 64°

So let’s talk about storm #2 and #3. #2 is due tomorrow…really not a strong storm but enough to create a nuisance “mostly” rain scenario locally.

It’s the batch of moisture coming up from the SW…towards the desert and Baja…

That moisture will stream northeast and some of the clouds will move into the area this evening and overnight.

Initially the lower part of the atmosphere will be dry though…despite all the clouds above…and it will take awhile I think to saturate this dry part of the atmosphere. Data this morning shows that while there could be a brief period of a wintry mix…sleet probably…it doesn’t look overly heavy right now at least. Hopefully that and the fact that it will be 32-34° will help the situation greatly and that is what I”m hoping for.

What moisture we get won’t be a lot tomorrow…perhaps another of the 1/4″ total types days but overall temperatures tomorrow are going nowhere…35° or so at best I think.

The evening may work out for the Lighting at the Plaza but that is low confidence right now…some mist or drizzle is possible but temperatures, while cold…won’t be dropping off at all really.

That’s because a stronger system is coming on Friday into Saturday morning.

This is connected to what’s happening in the western US…into the Pacific NW.

That system was a humdinger out there yesterday…and is doing a number today too…

That’s some great moisture out there in CA…with heavy(!) snows in the higher elevations.

This snow will go into northern AZ too…and a bunch is likely towards Flagstaff…close to 2 feet! If you’ve taken the I-17 up from Phoenix to northern AZ…this may ring a bell with you.

Farther south in AZ…flooding is possible…

So that storm…which was undergoing a “bombogenesis” process yesterday (rapid air pressure falls) off the Oregon coast is dropping into CA today. #2 is coming tomorrow…#3 is Friday

That storm will be wetter and allow warm air to surge northwards Friday night into Saturday morning.

So temperatures on Saturday should be in the 50s. After the storm passes well to the NW of KC…a cold front will sweep through later Saturday night…that will push the warm air away and allow more cold to drop into the central Plains.

That cold air though will be about a 2 day thing…before we moderate next Tuesday and right now the 1st week of December doesn’t look overly cold or snowy at this point.

I don’t see any big snow storms into the 10th right now…speaking of which..

Did you see the winter forecast from last night?

Our feature photo comes from Renee Carney

I’ll be blogging tomorrow but you may not be reading because of Thanksgiving…so if not..have a great holiday!

Joe

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