Joe’s Weather World: Not bad into Sunday…then colder…snowier? (WED-12/4)

Typically around these parts when there is warmer than average weather by any decent amount…then there is wind during this time of the year especially. Yesterday and for that matter today…that won’t be the case. Yesterday we were into the upper 50s…we should be close to that again today. The winds were only 5-10 MPH…

The average high is 44° so 13° above average is pretty decent for early December. In a sense this would be like having 100°+ temperatures in July…13° above average…but it’s all about perspective really. 50s in December are great…50s in the summer aren’t (for highs at least).

No significant storms are coming for awhile as the overall pattern remains pretty dry. The temperatures will trend down Friday then go back up over the weekend before coming back down next week…the extent of how down though is a question. Will this be a quick hitting cold shot…last a couple of days and move along…or perhaps something more substantial in terms of lasting power.



  • Forecast:

Today: Sunny and mild with highs well into the 50s. Light winds

Tonight: Mostly clear and cool with lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with highs in the mid 50s…a coler feel with the breeze.

Friday: Turning colder with afternoon temperatures in the 40-45° range…blustery too.



  • Discussion:

To say it’s been pleasant to start December is an understatement. A lack of gusty winds have really allowed us to enjoy some outside time for the 1st few days of the month and today and really tomorrow won’t be much of an exception.

There should be a cold front coming our way on Friday that will droop temperatures back to average but the cold air penetration is pretty weak and fast…and after a cold morning Saturday we should warm up again for the weekend. 55-60° might be very doable again if we get enough sunshine…and this time there might be a bit more of a breeze to stir things up a bit more.

There is actually a pretty wet storm out towards CA today…

That’s good moisture out there…with flash flood watches in effect for most of the coastal areas of southern CA.

Over the next 48 hours or so…good rains out there.

Notice where the heaviest rain is located…coastal areas and just inland. This is the result of a strong flow of moisture coming into the coast and then ascending up the mountainous terrain just inland. This creates a LOT of lift and as a result increases the rain for the coastal mountains.

This is the storm that we believe will essentially pass harmlessly towards the south of the KC region. It appears just some clouds for us…and pretty decent temperatures overall for Thursday as it squirts eastwards and weakens tomorrow night into Friday morning.

Then behind the front a cold front will work though the region on Friday. It’s no really strong and there will be stronger front or two next week…but it will take us back to average. The best chance of rain will all this will come towards the SE of the Metro area towards the Lakes region and the I-44 corridor.

We again moderate over the weekend with a south and southwest flow of air…nice weekend on tap. Fighting some clouds on occasion and perhaps a bit more wind as well.

Next week will be an up and down week.

One cold shot Monday into Tuesday AM…and we can see it as we go up to about 5,000 feet or so and look at the temperature anomalies at that level…blues>purples…colder…while the reds>whites are warmer anomalies

Then another comes on Wednesday…but the worst will be deflected towards the Lakes region it appears in the overnight data.

You can see by the coloring that the 2nd air mass for Wednesday next week appears colder. What could happen is instead of it being deflected towards the east…we’ll need to watch for a westward movement to this. IF that happens…very much an IF then we get colder for longer. IF it doesn’t happen…then this is nothing but transient cold.

The snow chances are more connected to IF this is farther west. A farther east push means that as that cold air rotates away from the region it might be tough to get snow going since the air mass will be warming up. Th EURO ensembles showing some 50 different runs of the model over the next 10 days aren’t exactly screaming a lot of snow around here. 16 or so members have at least 2″ of snow…but that doesn’t take into account any melting etc. A few are more aggressive but only a few.

The GFS ensemble data from overnight has this…a couple of aggressive outputs in there.

I mentioned last night that from the 12th>15th or so would be watched for a potential more wintry system. I’m not feeling any less or more confident today on that scenario.

Finally part 2 of my podcast with Jimmy Adegoke from UMKC about climate science is now available for you listening.

Our feature photo comes from @FromSide2Side

Joe

 

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