Joe’s Weather World: Winter storm warning for KC area…snow has started (SUN-12/15)

This morning I’m reminded of a graphic I showed about 10-12 days ago… indicating that there was a window from the 13th-15th of December that something wintry was possible. Hello winter!

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the KC Metro area. Today is wave #1, we’re still watching for wave #2 on Monday. There will be a lull overnight.

I’ll provide a blog update later today.

Schools will likely be canceled tomorrow for many in the KC area, and the Chiefs game will be impacted by the snow. Travel to and from the game will be affected obviously, so please be careful out there for the next couple of days.

Cold weather will be an issue through Wednesday morning with some moderation after that.



  • Forecast:

Today: Snow, at times moderate, will continue through the day with 2-6″ is possible>likely through the evening. Temperatures in the mid>upper 20s… not a lot of wind. Amounts will trend to the higher side from Downtown southwards and the lighter side north of Downtown KC up towards the KCI region and points northwards.

Tonight: Snow winds down. There may be some freezing mist out there as well but it won’t really affect anything since we’ll have snow on the ground anyway. Temperatures will hold steady.

Monday: More snow is possible, especially from KC southwards. This is connected to wave #2 and will increase the final totals. The track of wave #2 though is still to be determined.

Tuesday: Sunny and chilly with lows near 10° with highs in the 32° range.



  • Discussion:

Good morning! The snow is falling, and for areas that aren’t seeing snow yet, there is still an ongoing saturation of the atmosphere taking place.

This is the aforementioned wave #1 coming this way.

Here is radar:

Where you see the green colors that is some very solid light snow to at times moderate snow especially into thee darker green colors. This radar will auto-update as the/night moves along.

The broader view:

This is all associated with some broad lift moving into the Plains from the storm that is still down towards the desert Southwest.

This storm is generating the broad lift to the atmosphere focused into eastern KS and western MO.

This has created a large area of light to moderate snow and this will be with us through the early evening.

A lull comes tonight.

The latest from the NWS is shown below in terms of advisories/warnings…

Areas in pink are the winter storm warning. We’re surrounded by a winter weather advisory.

Today I’m expecting 2-6″ of snow to accumulate in the region. Data this morning is pinpointing areas on the southside with the higher snow amounts compared to areas from 152 highway northwards. So south of Downtown may see 3-6″ while north of Downtown might be more of a 2-4″ situation.

So that wraps up wave #1 of the snow.

The actual storm is towards the 4 Corners region this morning of the SW USA.

That will be the key for tomorrow.

Model data this morning is still showing a favorable track, but still also having a hard time generating a lot of snow locally tomorrow. IF this is correct then today is the main show and tomorrow is the dessert I guess.

All told though, 3-7″ of snow is likely through most of the region, with lighter totals northide of the  KC Metro region and heavier totals towards the southside of the KC Metro region… for example the 435/470 corridor and southwards.

Again the 2nd wave of snow is the actual storm coming our way; you can see that “U” shaped dip moving into the Plains in the model data for tomorrow morning.

For timing purposes in the maps below 18Z is Noon…0Z is 6PM…6Z is 12AM and 12Z is 6AM

How well the wave tomorrow holds together is one key. I still can’t let that go right now, and I think another 1-4″ is possible tomorrow from the north to the south through the Metro. That’s going to take some folks south of the Metro to close to 6-9″. That’ll be impressive IF it pans out.

As I mentioned yesterday this will be a drawn out event for the crews and contractors, so bear with them. They should make decent headway overnight, and then have to fight through things tomorrow, too. So give them a break and try to count to 10 if you get frustrated.

Two waves of snow with a lull in between. Welcome to winter!

No other snow systems are expected after this one for awhile it appears. As a matter of fact, a warming trend is expected in the region heading into the weekend.

Our feature photo is from Sandy Hendricks down towards Belton:

Joe

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