Joe’s Weather World: Evaluating the snowstorm (MON-12/16)

There have been a ton of blogs over the last 10 days or so…and I want to take a couple of days off from the blog but before I do…I wanted to sort of recap this past snowstorm and give you a clue what’s ahead…hint: take you pictures now and the kids may want to wear shorts again before Christmas.



  • Forecast: 

Tonight: Slow clearing and cold with lows close to 15° but there is a chance of freezing fog developing overnight and that could create some issues early in the morning. You may need to scrape the car window to start the day.

Tomorrow: Becoming sunny and chilly…highs near 32°

Wednesday: Sunny and chilly with highs in the mid 30s



  • Discussion:

First the good news…the pattern really wants to warm up…and I have a feeling more 50s are coming…and there would be a chance of some 60s in our future as well…

We’re not quite done yet with snow though…

There is actually some dry air between 6 and 10,000 feet or so that needs to be overcome for some of that stuff to work its way to the surface.

The issue we’re going to have is the snow on the ground. Yesterday we saw between about 3″ up towards KCI to over 8″ towards Pleasant Hill>Belton>Peculiar>Kingsville area. I thought there would be a tight gradient of lighter to heavier totals and there was to some extent.

Here is what happened with the storm…

The highest total I could find was close to 12″(!) out towards the SE of Manhattan.

Closer towards the Metro…

and some specific numbers…

My personal critique of MY forecast thoughts leading into the event is OK…but there were some things that I didn’t do as well with…

Overall the snow totals worked out well…I thought…so that is good. Timing worked out pretty well so that is good. Impacts etc were more or less accurate.

I also go back to this graphic that I showed more than 10 days before the storm even arrived in KC…

I highlighted the 15th for you…that’s pretty good.

My personal issue is that I underestimated the front end thumping of snow and over-estimated the back end snow coming today. That is a negative. I talked about 2 waves of snow for almost a week…and in reality it was wave #1 of snow that was the big deal and not wave #2.

So my overall personal grade for the storm I feel is a B-. Demerits for yesterday’s thumping. Positives for the longer range prediction…remember I was writing about this when it wasn’t even a storm out in the Aleutian Islands near Alaska. Positives for the overall accumulation for the vast majority of the region…although northern MO outperformed somewhat as well yesterday.

Now that storm is done…don’t ask me how KCI managed only about 3″ from this…but there were some totals up there close so I guess we accept that. It was a record for yesterday’s date though…officially 3.3″. Garry and I were joking with each other last night…about this. I wanted a higher total to get me started on the way to my winter forecast of 26″.

So with what we had yesterday…we’re now up to 5.2″ of snow.

Here’s the thing though…the pattern is going to be very anti-snow for awhile.

The snow that is out there will be refrigerating the near surface air…and it’s going to take awhile to get rid of it. When skies clear out tonight we should tank towards daybreak. That cold air will linger through tomorrow and probably Wednesday too.

The other issue is just above the surface there is a lot of mild air setting up…especially towards the end of the week. IF there was no snow on the ground we’d be in the 50s…on Wednesday but the snow will cut 10-15° or so from that potential.

There is a lot of snow out there that we need to get rid of…that process will accelerate on Thursday…heck no snow on the ground on Thursday would send highs to near 60° but we won’t get that warm

The good news is that the snow will be gone before the weekend…then we can really go to town for warmth. Data today shows soe really warm air building into the area and I’m beginning to think we could see 60°+ days possibly Saturday or maybe Sunday  with mild days into the early part of Christmas week.

The chances of a White Christmas at this point look to be about 3% or so…there may be a system near Christmas but with all the warm air in the Plains…it will be tough to get wintry weather from that. It appears we’ll need a Christmas miracle for the KC area for snow.

Take your winter pictures over the next few days…tough to see when we get more accumulating snow right now.

The 8-14 day forecast shows this trend…for temperatures.

I think the warmer weather will have run it’s course around Christmas with a more seasonable last week of December

OK that’s it for a couple of days…lots of blogging and working on my vacation so I want to check out of both till Thursday when I go back to work again.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Jeff Johnson‎ in Olathe…it almost looks like a painting!

Joe

 

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1 Comment

  • Farmgirl

    Joe, I’d say you got an A. Most folks only care about the totals. Your forecast was spot on for my location in southern Miami County, KS. For my location, another outlet had 9+ inches and NWS had 1.5 inches up until 8 hours out and then the forecast changed. Luckily today’s snow band is about 10 miles from me and missing the farm. We got enough snow at 4 inches, I don’t need anymore to plow. :)

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