Joe’s Weather World: March days in January and watching for some winter weather nearby (TUE-1/7)

Another day…another day with temperatures above average..almost at this point as if it’s baked into the system. Our morning lows are starting about 10 degrees above average…so it won’t take much to follow through in the afternoon and today will be no exception…neither will tomorrow and especially Thursday. There is some colder air coming…Saturday looks pretty cold…coldest in weeks as a matter of fact…but it’s in and out and we moderate for the big game on Sunday it appears.

That’s assuming whatever happens on Saturday, from a winter weather scenario is more focused south and east of the area…accumulating snow is still on the table for parts of MO but for KC it may be a swing and a miss. Still a long ways to go for a system thousands of miles away so a lot could change…but right now at least there is solid agreement in the track of the disturbance…and that track is still about 100+ miles off for a KC hit. 100 miles or so isn’t a lot…so we’ll keep watching it.



  • Forecast:

Today: Some clouds moving away this morning..aside from that nice and mild with highs 50-55°

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows in the 20s

Tomorrow: Windy and mild with highs 50-55°

Thursday: Cloudy with a few sprinkles possible highs in the 55-60° range. There may be some showers, especially SE of KC.



  • Discussion:

Interesting weather coming towards the end of the week…and yet nothing for me to get overly excited about. We could use some moisture though…and potentially this system will give us a solid 1/2″ or so…especially Friday.

It will be a trick though for temperatures on Friday…do we get falling temperatures during the day…do temperatures just struggle in the 30s most of the day then drop towards evening? How long does the precip hang around in the evening as the surface temperatures drop off…and finally (and more importantly) how long does the above freezing air above us hang around Friday night preventing us from seeing snowflakes forming…and what sort of wintry mix can happen in that time frame?

So lots of questions for a system that is actually out towards the west of the Aleutians…that’s Alaska.

You see this clump of clouds moving through the central Aleutian Islands..that’s part of the disturbance for the end of the week.

It will move through southern AK and then get slung through the eastern Pacific Ocean and move towards CA later tomorrow night.

From there it moves into the 4 corners region Friday morning…

Let’s go up to about 18,000 feet or so…and track it…

It’s actually broken up into a few pieces…but it’s about to move into the southern Plains…

The issue that we’re facing is the “U” dip…

Then on Saturday morning…

and Saturday evening…

The issue for us…that dip or “U” shape is still too far south…

There will be a wrap-around aspect of the precip from the storm…really the snow producing part of the storm…but that wrap around may skirt the area towards the S/SE/E of here…so this means that the potential for accumulating snow, based on the above track is higher in Columbia/Lakes region/St Louis/Springfield and Hannibal that it is here in KC.

That’s on Saturday.

On Friday though another aspect needs to be watched…

As we get rain…the air aloft and here on the ground will get colder Friday afternoon and night. There may be a brief period of a wintry mix or late night flakes. Right now I don’t think this will be a problematic thing for most of Friday evening (although IF it gets colder faster that could be an issue for the bridges and overpasses)…

With that said I do wonder about Saturday morning…not so much because of what may be falling…but because of the moisture on the ground…IF it doesn’t dry off in time…we could see some flash freezing happen for the morning Saturday…leading to some slick conditions…something to watch…

Anyway…this system will be a dynamic one…looking mostly towards Dixie for the risk of severe storms and tornadoes. Not uncommon for the winter season down there…

These are abnormally high percentage chances for severe storms…this is for Friday into early Satuday

and now for Saturday morning into Sunday morning.

Back to us…we’re going to briefly dip into some pretty cold air on Saturday it appears…20s to near 30° for highs and lows Sunday AM potentially near 15°…in other words nothing to crazy for January in KC…although compared to where we have been…today is the 20th day with above average temperatures…it will “feel” even colder.

It’s really a one day thing…perhaps towards the middle or end of next week we get a few  days of colder weather..it won’t take much to get us snow out of this but right now nothing really showing up…you can sort of see a set-up trying to happen…but at this point I’ll be on the slow boat to something bigger snow wise.

Remember yesterday’s blog about the “switch” to cold weather in during the last part of January last year…it could happen again this January. When I see model guidance showing 25-35° colder than average temperatures in the upper Midwest…it does raise some yellow flags. Also note the 20+ above average temperatures across the OH/TN Valley region towards the Gulf of Mexico

The map below is for next Wednesday evening…lots of colors!

That’s a pretty impressive temperature anomaly forecast…as cold as 40° below average in MT…again these are anomalies.

Something has to happen somewhere in this contrast…some sort of storm…with a track near the region…

By the way…for what it’s worth the CFS2 came out with a cold look to February…

Something to put on the back burner at least.

We can’t keep going with days and days of above average temperatures…at some point there has to be a snap-back to reality and then some…the issue is how long does that snap back last…

Tomorrow I may delve into the lack of atmospheric “blocking” something that didn’t happen during the last 10 days or so of January and into February last winter…hence the colder weather…just for grins…last February…

.

We started OK but tanked…overall about 6° below average for the month…and that was after a very mild start to the month too!

64° on the 3rd…I think that high on the 4th was a 12AM high…

and so it goes…

My feature photo for the blog comes from Nattapong Assalee‎ out towards Shawnee Mission Park.

Joe

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