Joe’s Weather Blog: A disappointing storm system (FRI-10/1)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — A new month has started and we’re saying goodbye to what was a warm September in the area.

We finished the month 3.4° above average and despite the storms and showers in the region yesterday late afternoon, many areas in the metro got nothing at all. KCI only had a trace of moisture so that meant the month finished with a rain deficit of almost 2 inches.

The system that is “sort of” affecting us is disappointing in terms of the rain coverage in the area. I wasn’t expecting a lot on Wednesday. I was expecting a bit more yesterday. Again, some areas got a nice rain but they were surrounding the metro.

Today probably won’t be much and tomorrow (while the chances are there) doesn’t look to be overwhelming either. That’s good news and bad. Good if you have outdoor plans, bad if you want the rain for the grass. Then the issue becomes when will we get some needed rain again, and that may not happen for another week or so beyond.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with scattered showers and storms possible. Highs in the 75-80° range, although that may be a struggle in some areas.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and mild with lows in the mid-60s.

Tomorrow: We’ll try again for scattered storms/rains in the afternoon mainly. Not total overage though. Highs in the 70s.

Sunday: Should be nicer with highs in the mid-70s. There may be a few storms around in the afternoon (20% chance).

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Discussion:

Yeah, this is a disappointing storm system. The rains yesterday were scattered. It rained pretty good for some areas, but again, the Kansas City force field was operating at 100%.

Rain to the west, rain to the east, rain to the north. Little rain for 90% of the metro.

So it goes… Predicting something accurately like that from days away isn’t really possible. How a two-county area right at the State Line gets so little is rather frustrating.

Today there isn’t any great forcing to create large areas of rain. So whatever forms will be more isolated compared to yesterday. That’s not great news and really it’s just going to be a haphazard thing this afternoon, but with the low clouds and fog in the area this morning, that may reduce whatever instability we can build up, because with limited sunshine, storms may have a tougher time coming together.

The model data certainly isn’t too thrilled with the coverage of the rain in the region today either.

So we wait.

Another chance comes tomorrow. The forcing is much better. The moisture will still be there and the front that is languishing will be on the move. It SHOULD rain, especially in the afternoon. Will it though for more areas getting more coverage? The warmer we get, the better the coverage should be. Amounts have been trending down though in the data over the past few computer runs. Most data gives us an average of under 1/2 inch with some even less that that.

Beyond that the rain chances get very murky. There is a small risk of something Sunday afternoon as a weak disturbance comes through. Drier air though will be spreading towards the area as next week starts. That will lead to nice fall days with highs in the 70s and lows closer to 50°, so it should be great but it should be dry as well.

No unseasonably strong fronts are expected in the area into the first part of October. The revised 30-day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center came out yesterday.

I think the temperatures part of this should work out. The higher-than-average rain situation remains to be seen. We average about 3 1/4 inches of precipitation this month.

Also remember that we’ve had three straight Octobers with measurable snow too in Kansas City. Last year it was on the 26th. In 2019, it was on the 28th, 30th and 31st, and in 2018 it was on the 14th! I believe that was the earliest accumulating snow in Kansas City weather history too.

Now that the new month is here, here is the breakdown of the records/averages etc.

A few tidbits before I leave you today.

We saw Victor form, so we’re about to go into the extra names for systems. This year they’ve dropped the Greek letter names in favor of more conventional names.

Meteorologist Mark C. Bove explained in a Twitter thread how likely the backup list of storm names would be used and the odds of doing so over time.

This I thought was pretty cool: They are now flying drones into hurricanes. Check it out.

That’s pretty awesome!

Then there’s this regarding the fires out west.

And this regarding severe weather:

By comparison here is how Kansas City stands…

Those southside warnings are connected to the mid March tornado in JOCO KS

OK that’s it for today. I may get a bonus blog out tomorrow depending on the rain situation. Have a great weekend!

The feature photo comes from Kathy Hinkle.

Joe

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