KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’re going to have a gray Chiefs Parade day in KC. While wind chills won’t be in the teens like the last Celebration Parade, it will still be chilly out there. And with the lack of sunshine, a little bite to the air is going to be with us all day long. If the parade was a few days later, like this weekend, you could almost be in shorts in the afternoon. But alas, not meant to be.

The big story is the second storm in the region that will be affecting us tonight and tomorrow early morning before it moves out. That will do it for rain or snow chances for about a week or so as drier weather is likely after that. For the most part, milder days are coming back to the region too.

This weird winter of weather continues.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with pretty steady temperatures in the upper 30s. Wind chills near 30 degrees.

Tonight: Initially dry but a light wintery mix is possible later tonight converting over to some light snow from the metro northwards but not until daybreak or so. This mix will create icy conditions in the region. Accumulations should mostly be under 1 inch for most of the metro overnight and early Thursday. Roads may still be slick tomorrow morning though.

Tomorrow: The system moves out in the morning leaving a trail of clouds for most of the day with highs in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

Friday: Sunshine and milder with highs back into the 40s.

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Discussion:

So let’s briefly recap: December was right at average for temperatures. January was over 7 degrees above average. February so far at the halfway mark is running more than 6 degrees above average. It’s probably a minor miracle that we’re had almost 8.5 inches of snow at KCI.

We should add a bit more to that total over the next 24 hours.

Storm No. 2 is down towards the Four Corners this morning after producing some big snows in northern Arizona yesterday and last night. Numerous roads had to be closed from Sedona northwards towards the border regions as the snow came down hard and fast with some strong winds too.

Let’s track it. The upper-level storm will be moving along a path similar aloft to what just happened, but at the surface the storm will be moving towards the Interstate 44 corridor. There is usually a disconnect between the surface features and the upper-air features.

So let’s go aloft to around 18,000 feet to start the tracking. Notice that the system holds together as it approaches and then shears out to some extent as it accelerates towards the east-northeast.

At the surface this morning, there is a stationary front south of the region and a developing surface low down into Texas. We’ve also seen a secondary push of cold air move into the region, hence the blustery winds.

The evolution for precipitation today follows. Initially we might have a bit of a mixture later tonight before midnight, but we should see a conversion during the overnight to light snow. Areas farther north will see more snow than towards the KC region.

As far as precipitation totals go, with us being on the south side of the upper level system we’re going to see considerably less than areas up towards the Iowa border. I do wonder if these totals towards the Iowa border though are too heavy. Here is the latest NAM model.

A fast-moving system that is shearing out seems to have a lessor chance of generating those totals that the NAM presents towards northwest Missouri. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for that region up there, highlighted by the counties in pink. For Kansas City, we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory from the metro northwards in purple/blue.

The precipitation that will come this way is going to be somewhat scattered and broken up a bit. So it should be pretty light and mostly a wintry mix. Later tonight as the atmosphere saturates more, we should see more light snow develop. Enough to coat things in many parts of the metro.

This coating will help to slicken things up tomorrow morning in parts of the metro, especially on the northside, hence the potential of more slick conditions for a few hours in the morning.

The HRRR model run from this morning paints this total precipitation picture and I think it might be a bit more accurate for northern Missouri.

What does that mean?

• For northern Missouri, something more in the range of 2-5 inches may be a better forecast than some some of the higher-end totals that are out there.
• For the KC region notice both models are roughly 1/10 inch or so (and for parts of the area less than that). If there is a bit of a mix for a couple of hours before the snow starts, this will reduce the potential snows for KC. Hence the dusting to 2 inches forecast with an emphasis, as I mentioned last night, on the lower side of the range for the metro.

The storm overall just isn’t targeting our area. If there are some better lines of snow developing, it will get updated later on and perhaps we could see some closer to 2-inch totals on the northside of the metro.

It’s just not meant to be for us in KC it appears.

After a brief intrusion of colder air tomorrow into tomorrow night, we should then warm back up on Friday thanks to a southwest wind developing over mostly snow free terrain. That will send temperatures soaring back into the 40-45-degree range. From there, the weekend may be even warmer again pushing near 60 degrees perhaps on Saturday.

Our next snow risk may be later next Tuesday or next Wednesday.

It’s just a weird winter. Snow risks interrupting a warm pattern overall.

There were some decent storms late yesterday afternoon. Winds were gusting to almost 50 mph as long as numerous reports of some pea-sized hail from the fast-moving cells. They came in and out quickly.

Just a taste to severe weather season coming down the road.

There were some great rainbow shots yesterday after the late afternoon rains. This one from Katheryn Ferguson out in Leavenworth, Kansas.

Joe