KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’re now approaching the halfway point to meteorological winter in Kansas City. This started on Dec. 1 and runs through the last day of February. And here we sit at a whopping 1.7 inches of snow officially at KCI.

There is no snow expected for the next five days. There is a system we’re watching towards next Thursday morning. We’ll see about that, but at least as we get towards the weekend it will be warmer again.

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Kansas City Forecast:

This afternoon: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the mid-30s. Where clouds hang tougher, it won’t be that warm. Light winds.

Tonight: Fair and chilly with lows in the lower 20s.

Tomorrow: Sunshine with increasing winds in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Sunday: Increasing clouds and windy. Highs in the mid-50s.

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Discussion:

So let’s start with the snow aspect of the blog.

There we are at 16th for the least amount of snow through mid-January.

There are signs as I mentioned yesterday (in the bigger picture of things) that we may be more favorably set up for various systems coming through with colder air nearby.

For sure though, this weekend ahead of our next storm (which is impacting California again) we’re going to warm up. This afternoon, skies are finally breaking up, although the clouds may be much slower to break up farther west of KC. Temperatures are responding with us near 32 degrees at noon.

We’ll tank tonight, but southerly winds should temper the freefall towards daybreak and the south winds tomorrow will be on the rise during the day tomorrow which will allow temperatures to moderate nicely in the afternoon after a cold start.

Sunday will be windy and warmer with increasing clouds. Highs could push 60 degrees, but I’m concerned about the cloud cover situation. We’re now into the coldest time of the year and dense clouds will cut our potential I think. Dew points will be increasing rather well later in the day into the overnight on Monday early morning and there should be at least some scattered showers moving through the region.

The storm in question is going to dump again in California. Take a look at the precipitation forecast through the weekend:

Once again 2-5-plus inches of rain near the coastal areas with heavy mountain snows again in the Sierras.

That system will impact us and by Monday morning, it’ll be up towards the Interstate 80 corridor.

Because of that trajectory, we’re going to get dry slotted early Monday. The window for us to get rain is a short one (of any significance) and it just doesn’t look overly promising to get more than 1/10 inch or so… if even that.

The air behind the storm, with little to no Canadian air to work with isn’t very cold. Temperatures will again be above average on Monday into Wednesday next week ahead of another storm.

That storm (the likely last in the Pacific onslaught) will need to be watched because it should track a bit farther south than the soon-to-be-early Monday system.

That may allow some colder air to work into the circulation. Again though, how much can happen and switchover before the storm exits next Thursday remains to be seen.

The GFS today is a bit on the bullish side for some snow prospects. Notice the change in the positioning compared to Monday’s system (from 20,000 feet at least):

It’s not overly deep and it may be weakening, so I’m not exactly thrilled with the set up for snow. But it’s something to watch Wednesday night just in case.

Bless its heart, the GFS model (deterministic) has a 5-10-inch snowstorm centered on the I-70 corridor. So let’s see what its ensembles are putting out.

For the time period in question only five of the 30 runs or so give us any snow. Most are very little in that timespan. So let’s keep the horses in the barn for awhile on this.

The Canadian has something, but it’s all up across northern Missouri, although its ensembles are a bit more south and somewhat bullish for some snow.

It’s something to watch, but really I won’t expect full clarity on it until Monday.

So it goes with snow in these parts.

The feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever up in Cummings, Kansas, where the buffalo roam.

Have a great weekend.

Joe