KANSAS CITY, Mo. — This morning a strong cold front is knifing through the Plains. Its eyes are set on arriving in Kansas City roughly around 12-2 p.m. From there, instead of springtime warm, we descend into a winter chill that will be long lasting, and while not record breaking on any individual day, from a temperature standpoint, it will be rather dramatic for its long life and extent.

We may also be vulnerable to one or two snow risks in this time frame. When will it break? Likely not until sometime on Thanksgiving week. There will be a few “milder” days, just not the 60s or 70s like we’ve enjoyed recently.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Cold front comes in around lunch into the very early afternoon. Rain chances go up as the front arrives, then perhaps a bit of a lull and more scattered activity. Then more widespread and heavier rains move in later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures go from the lower 70s to the lower 50s, then down into the 40s, and eventually 30s by 9 or 10 p.m. tonight.

Tonight: Rain ends around midnight from Kansas City southeast. Cold and blustery with morning lows in the 20s. I’m wondering about a few slick spots on some bridges and overpasses if the water doesn’t dry up fast enough. Lows in the mid-20s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and chilly with highs in the 30s.

The weekend: Cold but bright on Saturday, 30s. Then mostly sunny for Sunday and not as cold with highs in the lower 40s.

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Discussion:

So the big weather story locally: the cold front (cue dramatic music).

There it is. As of this writing at 8 a.m., it’s northwest of the metro, but it’s coming this way as the morning moves along. It should arrive from northwest to southeast through the metro between 11 a.m.-2 p.m.

Temperatures ahead of the front are in the 70-degree range, and behind it they’re dropping through the 30s. Winds ahead of the front are from the south, gusting to around 30 mph. Behind the front, they’re from the northwest gusting to around 25 mph.

Moisture is coming in ahead of the front. Dew points are in the lower 60s area wide. As the front cuts into the moisture, we’ll start seeing some rain develop over the next few hours with the front. Here’s radar from the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill.

Latest forecast data for temperatures show this idea towards noon.

40s in northwest Missouri and mid-70s towards the southeast of Kansas City with the front along the Interstate 35 corridor.

Then by 3 p.m.:

45-50 degrees in the metro, still holding on to the mid-70s towards 65 highway east of the Kansas City metro.

Pretty dramatic front for sure.

Again with the front, some rain and thunderstorms are possible between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.

Then behind the front, the rain will gradually fill back into the region advancing up from the southwest. This may actually be the better totals from the system as a whole. From Kansas City southeastwards, the rain amounts may actually be pretty decent when things wind down later this evening. Some areas could see over 1 inch of rain from Kansas City east and south.

The rain should shut off from west to east towards 8-11 p.m. tonight. The colder air will continue to pour in through the late night and early morning and I sent this tweet out earlier. It’s very possible the pavement will dry out in time before this happens with the winds and drier air helping the cause. But for areas towards the east and south of Kansas City, if you’re out before 5 a.m. tomorrow morning…

We’ll see how that comes along.

Weather around the U.S.

Meanwhile up across the northern Plains, a nasty blizzard will be ongoing today.

Some areas towards eastern North Dakota could see a bit more snow than shown on the chart above.

Blizzard warnings are in effect up there. It’s impressively cold up there for sure, and all the little stars on the map below show the snowfall reports.

8 a.m. surface map. Temperatures in red.

This is mostly snow, with some ice on the south side up in the northern Plains.

You can also see the front slicing through via radar as well.

Behind the front has been talked about for days: the colder air pouring in. Temperatures have dropped 30-35 degrees in the last 6 hours in areas shaded in purple. It’s coming.

So after January-like highs through Saturday, there may be a bit of moderation on Sunday thanks to a brief return of southerly winds. Perhaps we can get close to 45 degrees.

The next issue for early next week starting Monday into perhaps early Tuesday is this thing:

It appears a piece of that off British Columbia will break off and turn into a disturbance that will take the now familiar track into the southwestern U.S. Then potentially curl up towards the Missouri River Valley.

With cold air in place (especially above the surface), if this thing can make that turn and get into the right slot towards the I-44 corridor, it’s possible we could see some snow locally and southwards develop and move through early next week developing Monday PM and exiting early Tuesday.

There are a few things that have to happen with this and a track farther south won’t create the snow locally. The air aloft appears cold enough to support snow potential. The air at the surface is marginal it appears. And depending on the timing of the precipitation, there may be some sort of rain-to-snow potential with this. There are things though that need to be figured out with this potential. Just be aware of it. Things tend to go a bit haywire around these parts with the season’s first snow.

Having accumulating snows before Nov. 15 is doable as we’ve seen over the past five years or so, but they’re not exactly common. Here are the total snow amounts before Nov. 15. It’s interesting to see the October Surprise back in 1996 as still No. 1. We’ve had four years since 2010 though with accumulating snows.

Like I said something to watch.

Finally Hurricane Nicole came ashore earlier near Ft. Pierce/Vero Beach, Florida. The eye was rather large at 40 miles, 60-80 mph gusts have been reported. Up at Cape Canaveral, where they have sensors up higher at 120 feet because of the space-related activities, gusts got to 100 mph.

Flooding, beach erosion, and storm surge are the main issues so far. Tornados may become a bit more of an issue into the southeast U.S. over the next 36 hours. Some homes have fallen into the sea due to the beach erosion, weakened by Ian’s winds/surf. They had no chance with this one.

It’s been a somewhat rare two-hurricane hit into Florida this year. The last time that happened was 2005.

KC Drone Show with the feature photo as skies rapidly cleared out yesterday late in the afternoon.

Joe