KANSAS CITY, Mo.– Well those that got the rain yesterday got either a little or a ton. Others didn’t get a drop of rain and there seemed to be more with little or nothing than a ton of rain. Areas north of Interstate 70 seemed to do better than farther south. There were some penny-sized hail stones mixed in as well.
Today the activity will be more scattered and perhaps more favored in northern Missouri this morning and then more towards eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening. Some may do great with totals while many may not get a drop. So it goes.
The next thing is after today’s chances fade away overnight, the pattern is pretty dry, perhaps through the later part of next week.
Hope you get something today and this evening.
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Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Sunshine and clouds. Scattered storms possible later this afternoon and this evening. Highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight: Clearing out and cooler with lows dropping into the mid-50s.
Tomorrow: Delightful with sunshine and highs in the upper 70s.
Saturday: Sunny, highs in the upper 70s after morning lows in the lower 50s.
Sunday: Sunny with morning lows in the lower 50s and highs near 80.
Monday (Memorial Day): Warmer with highs in the low to mid-80s.
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Discussion:
This will be the last blog for awhile, although tomorrow there will be an announcement about a new website dedicated for farmers, gardener’s, landscapers, or in general anyone who wants to take a deeper dive into what’s ahead in the weather world. I announced it yesterday but will put together something on the blog tomorrow for you.
I’ll be off tomorrow through early June. Hopefully by the time I come back there are changes to the general weather pattern that start to bring more widespread rain into the region.
Yesterday there were some heavy downpours out there. The north side did especially well with nearly 1.3 inches of rain up at KCI. The south side of the metro missed out on the heaviest rains in general.
Here are some Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network reports so far:
When I say localized, I mean it. Look at this shot from the tower cam yesterday:
There were some 2-plus-inch totals in there too on the north side.
My concern today about the chances is that we may not be quite as unstable later this afternoon. With a push of drier air starting later today and tonight coming in from the east to the west, it’s not the greatest setup in my opinion. There may be some leftover boundaries around from the storms yesterday, so I can’t rule something out, but I’m not overly impressed by the setup today.
On the surface map this morning, you can see the drier dew points, the numbers in green, towards central and eastern Missouri and points eastwards.
Those dew points in the 50s, 40s and even 30s in Illinois will migrate farther west and arrive towards the weekend. The air will be significantly drier, and while temperatures will slowly moderate over the weekend into next week, it will remain comfortable.
That sunshine plus the dry warm afternoons will really dry things out rapidly. So for areas that got dumped on yesterday, good for you. For other areas, if you don’t get the rain later today, you may want to start using the sprinkler tomorrow into the weekend to give the grass a drink of water.
The extended model data isn’t the greatest looking at this point.
The GFS is wetter, as usual, but still not overly great.
The thing about using this data is that it will miss out on the localized dumps of rain, in situations like yesterday. This type of data typically takes on a more regional concept even though the data is for one location.
I won’t be surprised if maybe there are at least some scattered storms/showers around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
There are some signs that the risks of stronger storms may return to the Plains heading towards the 8-12th of June. At least there are some signs that we may start to see some additional winds developing aloft that could support stronger storms. Until then though, nothing widespread is showing up. Something isolated perhaps, but no concrete chances of stronger-to-severe storms. Just another bizarre severe weather season around here.
It almost seemed as a switch was turned off after the Linwood tornado, which by the way the anniversary of that is coming on Sunday, May 28. More on all that here: Linwood, Kansas 2019 tornado anniversary.
The feature photo comes from Chuck Carbajal out in Lee’s Summit.
Joe
