It was an absolutely fabulous weekend around these parts, and while it was toasty Sunday, downsloping winds will do that in September through October especially. It was more comfortable on Sunday, though rather windy for awhile.

The big story for us is… nothing. Nothing at all.

No weather of significance is expected for the week. This means days and days of sunshine with some fluctuations in temperatures. That’s about it.

And for rain, nothing is really expected until possibly this coming weekend, and that doesn’t look all that great either right now.

I’ll forgo the usual weather forecast since blogs will be a bit infrequent this week. Next update is coming though on Wednesday with details on Ian, which may be a major hurricane heading toward Florida.

Back to us. Sunday’s EURO forecast sort of said it all really… over the next 9 days:

That’s through the early part of next week and then some. Basically, I’d expect little to no moisture through at least next Wednesday…and perhaps longer.

Temperature trends for the next 2 weeks:

There will likely be some 80s sprinkled in there I think.

So there’s that.

Elsewhere in a slow to develop hurricane season, things have certainly become more active over the last few weeks with now Ian becoming a major headache for Florida and mainly the west coast of Florida.

There are still many questions about the final landing point of Ian, but it is strengthening and organizing well since last night and now a hurricane.

Here is the latest:

There has been a slow but noticeable slight trend toward the west. The EURO has been consistently the most menacing for Tampa with this storm, near or west of the Tampa Bay area for the last few days, but last night sort of trended west a bit more.

The GFS has been farther west, and the Canadian also. The GFS yesterday started to trend east though, putting areas from Tampa to Apalachicola sort of in the crosshairs.

BUT, there are considerations. So models are sort of coming into more of a consensus. The EURO trending west and the GFS a bit farther east, so we get something like this from the “super” ensembles. Overall though the GFS model has been somewhat more accurate in it’s longer range position forecasts of Ian so far

Via Tomer Burg
  1. Ian is forecast to rapidly intensify, and then on Thursday morning weaken as it integrates with a cold front coming into the region + undergoes stronger wind shear aloft ripping the storm as it approaches the Big Bend region or farther east.
  2. Will Ian even get that far north? IF it goes more towards the Tampa region, landfall would occur earlier and with less of an effect from the wind shear that will be towards the northern Gulf region. This means a likely stronger hurricane.
  3. This could be a BIG problem for the Tampa Bay region because a farther east movement towards the west of Tampa brings a stronger and higher storm surge up into Tampa Bay. This could mean upwards of a 9-12 FOOT storm surge coming up the Bay to the northern part of the Tampa Bay communities and into Lake Tarpon as well. This aspect though remains to be seen.

This would flood lots of areas in the region…IF you look closely you can see how the land would be flooded

Elevations less than 10 feet or so would be vulnerable… and there is a lot of that type of land there.

A slightly offshore major hurricane is probably the worst case of Tampa and it’s surroundings. Stronger winds typically are on the eastern and especially northeastern part of the hurricane and the max storm surge follows suit as well.

4. How strong will Ian be when this happens (or doesn’t with a different track? We do know that the structure is getting more and more organized. We also know that for the next couple of days it is going over some VERY warm waters…typically the warmest of the year as it moves towards western Cuba. These waters are measured by Oceanic Heat Content or OHC…and there is a LOT of it. Warm and deep waters.

Ian will likely pass over western Cuba. It’s not that mountainous and more importantly it’s only about 50 miles from one end to the other in width, so Ian would be interacting with land for under 12 hours, although some if it’s broadening circulation may be disrupted in doing so. It won’t destroy the storm.

So Ian has a lot going for it in terms of it’s ability to strengthen even more compared to where it is this morning from a strength standpoint.

Hurricane Watches are in effect as well as Tropical Storm Watches from Tampa southwards at this point in the morning. These will likely be adjusted and added onto farther northwards.

Feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson

Next update on the blog is Wednesday. See you at 9/10 tonight

Joe