KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Another pleasant start to the day in the region will turn into a toasty afternoon in the area with temperatures this afternoon about 10 degrees above average. This heat will continue for at least another six days (maybe longer), and may actually increase in intensity over the weekend and into early next week.

At this point, no record highs are expected, but there is Monday and Tuesday that could threaten the record of 95 degrees set back in 1954 and 1948. Yeah, it’s going to get hotter I think.

The good part about this is that the dew points haven’t been at their typical summer levels. We’ve mostly had dew points in the 50s to near 60 degrees. The larger the spread of temperature and dew point, the drier the air is, so afternoon humidity levels have been around 30-35%. That’s not bad at all, and it’s allowing the evening temperatures to quickly drop off.

One thing that may start to alter that is the winds that will be increasing over the coming days. Windy conditions are expected over the weekend as well.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Sunny with highs approaching 90. A bit more of a breeze developing as well in the afternoon.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the low-to-mid-60s.

Tomorrow: A few more clouds filtering the sunshine with hot conditions. Highs in the upper 80s. Great for the game.

Friday: There is actually a small chance of an isolated/fading shower or storm in the morning. Then partly cloudy and hot with highs in the upper 80s again.

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Discussion:

The last week of summer has commenced and it’s feeling and looking like summer out there. Temperatures have been above average for highs for the last few days: average now is 80 degrees.

Yesterday was the 87th day with highs 85 degrees or above. Last year we had 90 days. We should blow past that this year over the coming seven days or so. This will be the most since we had 97 back in 2018. We may go beyond that as well before the year is over.

We’ve had 47 days with highs 90-plus degrees. That is about six more than average, and we’re going to likely had several more to that as well. In 2018, we had 59 days. Doubt we challenge that.

We’ve had 16 days with highs 95 degrees or higher. In 2018, we had 17 days. We’ll see about that. Might be tough to get to 95 degrees, but we may be very close for a couple of days.

We’ve had three days with highs 100 degrees or higher. That’s the most since we had 20 back in 2012.

Overall, as the “meteorological” summer data continues to come in, this summer was a hot one.

Out of 128 summers on record, this one ranked 18th-hottest in Missouri and 17th-hottest in Kansas. Notice the even hotter rankings out towards Texas and the western U.S.

A look back at meteorological summer rankings:

1 means the hottest, and so on

How weather in western U.S. will affect KC next week

There is some interesting weather out in the Pacific Ocean, including what was a former typhoon heading towards Alaska.

A lot of of those swirls are typhoons of various intensities. They are in the process of transporting tropical heat into the northern latitudes, which is what they do. The one near the coast of the Aleutians is this one.

One former typhoon is moving towards the Bering Sea.

Storm warnings are in effect for that area.

So why am I bringing all this up? Sometimes when we get multiple recurving typhoons in the Pacific, especially in the late summer and fall, it can throw curveballs into the models and result in more extreme weather as well. Models sometimes have a tough time handing the influx of heat into the more northern latitudes from the typhoons, and as a result what happens downstream from there can be affected in terms of model output and eventually reality.

Model data shows some of the former energy combined with other systems, creating a deep and cold dip in the jet stream off the western U.S. by the end of the weekend. The corresponding reaction then would be a building of a ridge: a hotter dome of air at the surface and aloft through the middle of the country.

This map shows the flow up around 18,000 feel or so. That “H” in the southern Plains will be our heat dome for a few days into the middle of next week.

The question then becomes, what happens to that dip out in the western U.S.? Where does it go and how does it hold together? We do know that ahead of whatever that dip does (also the one in the northwest part of Canada), there will be quite a bit of late-season heat in the Plains.

Take a look at this: The 5,000-feet anomalies for temperatures for a five-day stretch from Friday evening through Wednesday evening next week.

Monday and Tuesday may be the hottest days in there, and that’s why those records of 95 degrees are on my radar.

Small chance of rain near KC

Before we get there though, as mentioned in the last blog, there is a small chance of at least something popping on radar heading into Friday morning. It’s thanks to the remnants of what was Hurricane Kay, which is really now just a bunch of small disturbances and a lot of anomalous atmospheric moisture in the western U.S.

Data for the last few days has shown some semblance of a chance of isolated storms, especially on the Kansas side for Friday morning. Odds perhaps favor areas northwest of Interstate 35, but there is something in there that at least warrants the mention of a chance so no one is surprised at least. If you get something, you’ll be the lucky ones I think.

Same for Saturday afternoon with the building heat as well, and perhaps some remnant moisture hanging around. So the chances are not great but they’re not zero either.

Dew points will be increasing over the weekend as well, so the muggy days are coming back too with 90s. In other words, summer isn’t done yet, and still has some fight in it left.

The feature photo comes from Katherine Kat Brock of a smoky sunrise from yesterday morning near Levasy.

Joe