KANSAS CITY, Mo. — OK before you run to the store to stock up on all the milk and bread, I doubt this would be for KC… so let’s get that out of the way right off the bat.
I’ve been noticing a few things in a couple of models that has me wondering if there could be some wet snow flakes while you’re sleeping early Saturday morning.
This would mainly be towards northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas and perhaps farther north into southeast Nebraska and Iowa.
This is going to be a very dynamic storm and November systems that are dynamic can do some funky things that aren’t conventional as they attempt to chill the atmosphere down in the core of the storm. That is possibly on the table with this, again towards the northwest of the metro.
So let’s dive in.
Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Sunny this morning with some clouds moving in this afternoon from the west and warm. Highs in the upper 70s. Windy conditions developing in the afternoon with gusts to 30-40 mph possible as well.
Tonight: Windy and mild with lows in the 60-degree range.
Tomorrow: Increasing clouds as the day moves along. Windy and warm again. Gusts to 40+ mph possible. Highs in the upper 70s.
Friday: Rain developing with some thunderstorms likely as well. Locally heavy rains possible. 1-3 inches in some spots. Remaining mild for awhile then dropping. Highs near 70 degrees.
So yesterday was a remarkable day. We hit 80 degrees in November. That may not seem that special, but it was really. It was only the 19th time that we did that and the first time since 1990 that we did that in the first week of November.
The last time we did hit 80 degrees or higher was back in 2006 during any day in November. Here are the warmest highs in November:
Topeka, Kansas, tied their record high of 82 degrees.
Meanwhile some last items for October:
The warm air mass that we have flowing up through the Plains will increasingly turn moist. Dew points will be increasing over the coming days to near 60 degrees. This morning though as I type this, 50-plus-degree dew points are spreading northwards.
As the dew points increase, the potential warming with a lower sun angle decreases. Basically dry air heats more efficiently than moist air does. With clouds coming and higher dew points, I don’t think we can get to 80 degrees these next couple of days, but we’ll certainly be close.
So it will stay warm ahead of this storm coming up from the southwest.
Weather around the U.S.
The storm this morning is dropping down through the western U.S.
It represents a cold pocket of air in the atmosphere and the snows are going to be flying out west in the higher elevations from Colorado to California. Take a look:
There are some near-10-feet snows possible with this. Again, mostly into the higher elevations. Even Arizona will be getting snow. This from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona.
So let’s track that cold air pocket in the atmosphere…note where it goes in this animation from this afternoon through Saturday morning.
Now let’s come lower in the atmosphere and see how the air is chilling down as a result of the storm. This is around 5,000 feet or so for 1 a.m. Saturday.
See that area of sub-freezing air in eastern Kansas.
Now three hours later.
Let’s go a bit lower towards the ground, around 3,000 feet up, with a Missouri-focused map.
Next rain chance could also bring some snow flakes
Ok, so if the atmosphere still has some lifting left in it in the wee hours of Saturday morning, the atmosphere may be cold enough to get flakes down to a few thousand feet above the ground, mainly up north of Kansas City.
It doesn’t guarantee snow, because if the flakes are gently falling, they may melt before getting to the ground. But it doesn’t rule it out either and with such a dynamic storm moving through, it wouldn’t shock me.
You heard it here first. It would take the almost perfect setup, but dynamic storms in November do some strange things sometimes. With this happening in the wee hours of the morning, it’s possible.
More importantly for us, this is a big rain maker.
Lighter rains are expected during the day at times Friday with the main push coming as the cold front connected to this whole thing moves through in the evening hours. Some areas may see over 2 inches of rain if things work out. Areas southeast of Kansas City may be waiting until Friday night for the better rains from this.
Oh and we’re setting up for quite the temperature gradient on Friday from north to south Friday afternoon.
Severe weather in the Plains
In addition to all this happening, there may be strong-to-severe storms in the Plains, including the risk of tornadoes tomorrow night into early Friday morning. These November setups though can be boom or bust.
Then on Friday, sort of more intriguing to be down in Texas
Dynamic storms, November, temperatures dropping… yup, seems like the seasons are moving along.
Oh and there’s this:
The feature photo is from @KCDroneShow.