KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The snow has just about wound down now with widespread 1/2 inch to 2 inches being average amounts in the area with some places scattered about with 2-3 inches of wet snow. It came down fast and furious for a few hours yesterday evening. The rain aspect of this system was extremely limited as I expected. Overall, a good forecast from 5-6 days out as I was banging the drum pretty good that this was going to happen and timed it out rather perfectly from the middle of last week.

One snow system down with many more to come over the coming months… but not anytime soon.

The focus now will be the cold temperatures into the weekend. Our shift into the colder regime started around lunch last Thursday and will just keep grinding on and get some occasional shots of cold air to reinforce what has been ongoing in the region. Tomorrow and Friday both look rather chilly considering average highs are in the lower-to-mid-50s now.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Clouds this morning with some sunshine this afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy and cold with lows near 20.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds and blustery. Winds gusting to 30 mph with colder air moving through. Highs in the lower 30s.

Thursday: More sunshine and still cold with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s.

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Discussion:

Thankfully we had a snow event with temperatures in the lower-to-mid-30s for the duration. This kept accumulations limited to mostly grassy surfaces and kept the roads just plain wet as opposed to snow covered and slick. There were a few secondary roads that got a bit of snow on them and perhaps some bridges and overpasses had a bit of slush on them.

It does look pretty out there with the snow clinging to the trees and stuff. Get those pictures in fast though as the melting may be quick this afternoon. Here are a handful of reports that came in this morning. Up towards northern Missouri there were some 2-inch totals as well.

Again though, an appetizer for additional snows to come over the coming months.

Onwards.

The main thing really is the colder weather. It’s just a persistent flow of air coming from the western Canada region with some major influences from central and northern Canada as well. I actually rain a model that shows where a simulated bubble of air came from from last Thursday when it was created. Note the path:

The air that came into Kansas City started up towards the Great Slave Lake in north central Canada in the northwest territories.

Typically these cold regimes last for about 5-10 days or so before the air in the source region is worked over so much that it starts to moderate. That will be the case this time as well: another five days of colder air then some moderation during Thanksgiving week.

I do have to admit, this is one of the more impressive coast-to-coast shots of abnormally cold weather that I can remember in quite some time. Look at the temperature anomalies averaged over the next five days:

When Alaska and Greenland are that warm (above average), the cold is usually forced southwards into the U.S.

Now the five days of Thanksgiving week.

The worst of the chill ebbs to some degree. Remember this is over 5 days and milder days are likely heading towards Thanksgiving itself here in the Plains.

So if you take the two maps together and look at the temperature anomalies over the 10-day period we get this off the EURO.

There are encouraging trends for the last week of the month as the model data shows these anomalies.

You can see the reversal of the colder regime into something that won’t be as cold. Remember though towards the last week of November, the average high is in the upper 40s. So hopefully something to look forward to.

Will we get snow again soon?

As far as additional snows go, that should do it for a while. On the assumption that things get back towards average later in the month, we may not have the cold air source to generate snow. So rain may be the next chance of precipitation and that rain may fall next Wednesday or Thursday (Thanksgiving). Data today shows some potential a week from tomorrow. This is connected to a pocket of energy in eastern Asia today. It needs to cross the length of the Pacific. The GFS does generate a stronger western U.S. ridge which allows colder air to drain down the central U.S., so it will bear watching for winter precipitation trends.

Oh and if you want some snow entertainment, here is a look at some super long-range outlooks for snow from the extended version on the GFS and from the twice-updated/week EURO model. Keep in mind that some of the totals locally on these maps have already fallen with the system of the last 18 hours or so.

These are really worth little to me, but I do enjoy looking at them on occasion. They can vary wildly from week to week.

The feature photo is from Miami County and Gene Gengelbach.

Joe