KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We missed out on a record low this morning. So far at least 25 degrees has been the lowest we’ve seen at KCI. The record will likely stand at 21 degrees for another year. I just really wonder if the construction out there is affecting the low temperatures at night. We’ve noticed for the last 18 months that the lows don’t get down as much as they used to. Perhaps coincidence, perhaps not.

The next two changes in the weather are the expected warmup and then the next chance of rain. In droughts it will rain, the issue usually is that the rain isn’t a ton and then it’s followed by days and days of more dry weather. We may be setting up for that again.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Sunny with some high clouds moving through. Not as cold in the afternoon with highs in the 55-60-degree range.

Tonight: Fair and not as cold with lows well into the 30s.

Tomorrow: Warmer with highs near 70 degrees.

Friday: Windy and warmer again with highs in the lower 80s.

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Discussion:

It’s a frosty morning out there with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Aside from some higher clouds coming down from the northern Plains today, we should enjoy quite a bit of sunshine.

The light west winds will help to warm things up as well, likely well into the 50s, and we go higher from there with 80s returning for Friday into the weekend. Mid-80s are possible for some areas as well. Dew points will gradually come up as well on Saturday into Sunday with dew points expected to be well into the 50s to near 60 by the time our next front comes through that will be later Sunday night or Monday AM.

When is the next chance for rain?

That next front will be the key to our next storm chance. The timing continues to be sometime later Sunday night or early Monday. It will be connected to a rather strong surface storm that will be moving through the upper Midwest.

As this comes together on Sunday, a lot of wind will be developing over the weekend. We get a taste of it on Friday, then a bigger bite on Saturday and a lot of it on Sunday. The winds just above the surface on Sunday will be running 30-40 mph, so wind gusts here on the ground will likely follow suit. A lot of wind is coming this way.

Those strong south winds will also tug up some gulf moisture and dew points will be climbing, especially Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening. The issues that are showing up regarding rain amounts is that there still might not be a ton of instability around when the front moves through. While there may be showers and storms around on Sunday night, they will be moving along at a pretty fast clip, and they may not have a lot of time to dump rain on the region.

We then get dry slotted very quickly. In a sense, while there are decent signs for rain, the rain amounts are looking meh. It should be something for many, but at this point, odds are favoring under 1/2 inch or so as an average. Perhaps a bit more towards northern Missouri and points towards the east of the region.

So it goes in a drought. Hopefully this can overachieve, or we get more of a moisture surge to tap into when the front arrives.

The front itself is of Pacific origin there won’t be a lot of real cold air dumping in behind it. That means highs on Monday should be back into the 60s (not the 80s), but closer to average for later October.

There will be cold air with the storm. As a matter of fact, there may be decent accumulating snows across the upper Midwest with this into the western reaches of Nebraska and South Dakota especially, as well as Wyoming and the higher elevations of Colorado too. That isn’t too unusual for mid-to-late October up there as temperature contrasts get bigger and bigger from Canada to the Gulf Coast. Storms have more energy to wrap up as they get stronger and the moisture is more abundant and wraps around the storm. It goes into the colder air and you get some heftier snows.

Not that we want a repeat of the October Surprise back in the mid-90s, but a bigger system/setup locally for rain wouldn’t be such a bad thing, especially when you see the last four months of rain anomalies:

It is dry, dry, dry and we’re really not alone in this. The data above is through this past Sunday.

I may sound like a broken record, but it is dry. The updated drought monitor comes out tomorrow.

Check out this update concerning the corn crop in Kansas.

According to the Kansas Mesonet, rain amounts in Kansas are about 2 inches below where they were last year, about 70% of the average, and it makes a difference.

Weather around the U.S.

Speaking of the dryness. There has been some good monsoonal moisture out in Arizona. With that said though, this was important perspective:

Even this year, in a favorable year for moisture, the state averaged under their “normal”. You add up all the years where there have been deficits and some surpluses, and it still is ugly over the last almost 30 years or so.

A climate note as well for Alaska… ouch. This is a small blip in time (10 years), but my goodness.

OK that’s about it for today. The feature photo is from Vicki Anderson Dolt of a pretty sunrise a while back.

Joe