Ian continues to be a big headache for Florida, now a mostly significant rain event, but winds are still going to be an issue along the coastline of NE FL as well as GA and SC/NC into tomorrow.

The storm was nasty in SW FL…for wind, surge and rain…for central FL it was a rain event mostly and it still is towards eastern FL this morning.

Ian is now a tropical storm…and really may have lost a lot of it’s “tropical” characteristic however it may return to hurricane status off the SE US coast depending on things progress.

It’s still though a major headache from a flooding standpoint as rain amounts are well in excess of 12″ in many areas there. and winds may again be a factor into SC

For us in KC though we can’t by a rain drop. It’s beautiful out there and it will remain that way for days to come with minor temperature variations. For those who say it seems like we go straight from summer to winter…we can’t say that this year…these last 10 days (after the near 100° heat last Monday and Tuesday) have been spectacular really…truly the best of fall, for the most part.

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Discussion:

I haven’t put a forecast in the blog lately because there really isn’t anything dramatic about the forecast. Just days and days of nice weather. If you wanted to know what’s it’s like to live in the desert SW during the winter season…this is pretty much it really.

These are the days that they enjoy, day after day, in late November into February. Mild afternoons…cool mornings…just delightful.

Of course the lack of rain is more and more of a thing around these parts. We’re running almost 8″ below average for rain since June 1st. This is the driest it’s been in that time frame since 2012

If we take out the month of June and just go from July 1st through the end of September though…we jump into the top 10 of driest times.

and this September will be up there as well.

9th driest September

This of course has led to drought conditions expanding through western MO and eastern KS.

and on the KS side…

Many areas of the Metro are under severe drought conditions…and it’s really showing up in non-watered areas/lawns etc. Getting browner and browner. The “nothing but sunshine” days, with the lower dew points and at times the windy conditions has allowed the top soil to dry out in a big way. Hence the terrain in spots is stressing from a lack of moisture.

The longer term prospects don’t look good…

Not a good combination for moisture. Warmer than average and drier than average.

There will be periodic cold fronts…but because of a lack of quality Gulf moisture streaming northwards from the southern US…getting appreciable rains is going to be tough.

There may be a chance or two next week…likely not a lot but perhaps something can stir next Wednesday and then again next weekend. Model data is trying to find at least some light stuff in the area. From the EURO ensembles…

See how there are some indicators for very light rain…perhaps on Wednesday. Maybe some showers? Then perhaps something a bit more promising next weekend?

The GFS is trying as well.

again some indicators for Wednesday but sort of blah for next weekend chances.

The GFS shows perhaps something a bit better towards mid October.

If we could just take a bit of Ian’s rain…FL has plenty to spare.

48 hour rain totals

and the rain is still falling.

OK that’s it for the next 10 days or so…hopefully when I come back there is more weather to talk about.

The feature photo is from Michael Cooper out toward the west of Carrollton this morning…a little frost out there. By the way…I’ll be off for the next week or so…so no blogs till the week of the 10th.

Joe