KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Another windy, warm day is on tap for the region as temperatures this morning are starting out in the lower 60s. As a matter of fact, the low of 61 degrees will likely tie the record warm low for the date set back in 1964.

Upper-level clouds and some lower-level moisture has moved into the region this morning. The low-level moisture isn’t particularly thick and we should see filtered sunshine for most of the day with another day into the 70s.

Tomorrow though will be the changeable day with a likely 20-30 degree spread in temperatures across the region during the afternoon with a slow-moving front coming into the region and rains, some heavy, moving through as well.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds, windy and warm with highs in the mid-70s.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, windy and warm with lows in the low-to-mid-60s. Some fast-moving showers are possible before daybreak.

Friday: Rain chances increasing as a cold front comes into the region towards lunch. Temperatures southeast of Interstate 35 will be warmer than areas northwest of I-35. Temperatures in the metro should drop from well into the 60s to the mid-to-upper 40s later in the day. Rain will be heavy at times with thunderstorms as well.

Saturday: Rapid morning clearing. Blustery and cooler with highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Sunny and pleasant with highs in the mid-60s.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Discussion:

Before I get into the storm, the new drought report came out this morning. Basically no changes for the Kansas City region. Some improvement in green for central Missouri.

The specifics still have most of the region in severe-to-extreme drought conditions.

U.S. Drought Monitor map for Missouri on Nov. 1, 2022.
U.S. Drought Monitor map for Kansas on Nov. 1, 2022.
U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Kansas City National Weather Service area on Nov. 1, 2022.

The rains are needed that are coming and model data is still suggestive of 1-2-inch totals with some upside in some areas depending on the storm coverage. Here is a general gist of where we stand.

I think that area of lower totals southeast of the metro are possible, although perhaps not that low.

The core of the storm itself will be passing northwest of the Kansas City metro. Read yesterday’s blog for snow implications for far northwest Missouri and maybe northeast Kansas and northwards. I haven’t changed my thoughts on this, and I’m glad I was well ahead of the game in talking about this potential. As I said, dynamic storms in November and into the winter season can do some interesting things.

This storm will likely have a severe weather component to it, mainly overnight.

And tomorrow.

There is a concerning severe weather threat with this in the form of potential tornadoes down in eastern Texas.

See that hatched area.

This is not set in stone though and sometimes these scenarios don’t line up correctly. Again these types of dynamic storms can do some strange things.

As far as the snow aspect of this goes, the main threat will be with the core of the storm towards the northwest of the metro, chilling the atmosphere and allowing the colder air aloft to sink towards the ground, allowing some frozen precipitation to reach the surface. This concept is still in play towards the Iowa border. At this point, no accumulations are expected, although if something hard and fast enough does fall, sometimes considering the night timing, you can get some minor grassy accumulations.

The only way this potential sinks a bit farther southwards is if the air aloft chills more towards the south towards the metro. I think though that the better chance of there being lift synced up with that chillier air is farther north of Kansas City, but it will be watched.

As far as the temperatures go tomorrow, it will depend on the progress of a seasonably strong cold front that will be advancing.

Here is the way the HRRR model advances the front, and timing on this could change.

There really isn’t any cold air behind this storm, so we should be seasonable, but windy on Saturday and above average from Sunday into the middle of next week. We should be more vulnerable to colder shots of air towards mid month.

The feature photo comes from @BlueSpringsWx. Still some colors out there.

Joe