KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’re starting the day today much like yesterday finished, gray and mild. If anything, temperatures this morning are milder than where the were yesterday. This is more a result of the dew points now reaching the 60s. It feels like spring out there and with the winds going today. That won’t change.

The question for today is will we clear out. If we do, highs could pop to record levels. I’m not sure we will until perhaps it’s too late. If that’s the case, I doubt we see record highs today. Regardless, still very mild to warm for November and still one of the warmest highs for today’s date in KC weather history.

The main focus is on the front coming into the region and the timing of the front’s arrival. Right now, it should be near lunch tomorrow, sometime between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. from northwest to southeast through the region. That will be the game changer for the weather over the next 7-10 days, a certain early taste of winter.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy and warm with highs near 75 degrees.

Tonight: Variable clouds, breezy and warm with lows in the mid-60s.

Tomorrow: The cold front should move in towards lunch. We may get to around 70 degrees or so before the front and then drop to the 40s behind the front. The temperatures should drop 20 degrees in an hours time or so. Brief thunderstorms are possible with the fronts arrival.

Friday: Sunny, blustery and colder with highs in the mid-to-upper 30s.

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Discussion:

So let’s start with the front.

The front has slowed down, but it still means business. The temperatures in the following map are in red (note the contrast), with 60s ahead of the front, then a fat drop into the 30s, and 20s behind the front. The front is the blue line. The dew points of 60 degrees or higher are underneath the green line.

That’s also a wide swath of 60-plus degree dew points. Strong south winds will continue to bring the moisture north until the front sweeps it away.

That moisture is taking the form of low clouds.

The thought with this is the strong winds will help to mix the air mass up and roughly above 6,000 feet, the air is bone dry. That’s the air that needs to erode the lower clouds that are feeding into the area which could be a real trick. Sometimes the sun can help this process out, but roughly 4-5000 feet of moisture may take awhile to break up. Perhaps too long for us to tie a record high of 78 degrees set back in 1999.

Regardless, still a very warm day in the region, especially for today’s date. Here are the warmest temperatures for Nov. 9.

And for the record, the warmest temperatures for tomorrow’s date. We won’t be near a record high I don’t think, unless the front slows down by about six hours.

We won’t break any records for the coldest highs with this front coming into the region, but with the 70s today and at least tomorrow morning for a few hours, it will still be a rude awakening.

Modal data has the front arriving around noon, give or take about 1-2 hours. Here is the high-res NAM model. Typically these fronts come in 1-3 hours faster than the models show.

With the front and even perhaps behind the front there should be at least some rain, perhaps a few thunderstorms. Severe weather at this point is not expected locally. Areas towards the east of the metro have perhaps a slightly better chance of a stronger storm towards and east of 65 highway. Winds would be the main threat with this scenario.

So we go from that temperature map above to this by 6 p.m. tomorrow.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a few degrees cooler in the end.

With the winds going as well behind the front, it will certainly add a bite to the air.

Weather around the U.S.

Friday and Saturday the cold, January-like air mass will have settled in the area and it’s going to stick around for awhile.

You may notice Alaska is going to be warmer than average. This is typical when we get these cold outbreaks in the U.S. When Alaska is super warm, there is a corresponding dump of cold air into the contiguous states usually.

Aloft, as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so…you can see the flow. A nice big ridge towards Alaska, hence their warming, and a big dip in the jet stream in the U.S. So the flow of air aloft dumps from western Canada into the U.S.

Finally Tropical Storm Nicole.

This may end up breaking records for lowest November air pressures in Florida.

How unusual are hurricanes in Florida in November? Very.

Landfall of Nicole, potentially a Category 1 hurricane, may occur near Port St Lucie, Florida.

Here are some radars from Miami:

From Melbourne, Florida:

Lots of wind expected up and down the Florida eastern coastline into the southeast U.S. as Nicole’s expansive wind field comes in. The beaches there are really going to take a prolonged hit of surf, some surge and onshore flow.

The feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever

Joe