KANSAS CITY, Mo. — I don’t want to alarm you, but temperatures today, for the first time in 10 days or so (at least for highs) are likely to be above average.

We got close yesterday, missing the average by 1 degree (50 degrees), but today we should be near or above 55 degrees, and that will do it. The average by the way for today’s date is 51 degrees.

So after all that cold weather, from the 11th through yesterday morning, we’ve turned the corner and we’re coming out of the chill.

It’s been a remarkable month of November. We’ve set a record warm low temperature and a record cold high temperature. Despite all the gyrations, we’re only 1.3 degrees below average for the month and we may bring that up a bit over the next 10 days or so.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Sunny and milder with highs in the mi++++++++d-50s.

Tonight: Fair and cool with lows in the 30s.

Tomorrow: Warmer with highs approaching 60 degrees.

Wednesday: Mild again with highs well into the 50s.

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Discussion:

So before we dive into the Kansas City weather, now that the incredible lake effect snow engine has turned off, a final look back.

This is into Saturday morning so it doesn’t take into account what happened over the weekend, especially Saturday where there was more lake effect snow, but you get the idea.

We can see how this was mostly all driven by lake effect snows. Michigan also had quite a bit, just not to the magnitude of what happened in New York. Here are the highest totals:

As I mentioned, Michigan also got hit.

Those snow numbers are impressive.

My colleagues at the NWS in Pleasant Hill, Missouri, put this together. I may do something with this idea during the newscasts tonight.

That’s almost nine years of Kansas City snow to get to that one amount, 80 inches in Orchard Park, New York.

That’s crazy. Also shows the lack of big snows here. Although to be fair this doesn’t include the 20.1 inches that we’ve seen so far this calendar year. So maybe shave off a year from the above graphic. Still, eight years worth of snow in one three-day period up there.

With this being Thanksgiving week, travel conditions in the Plains and elsewhere are important, especially for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday. Right now, Wednesday looks good for the Plains and most of the U.S. Here is the NAM model showing the rain/snow situation. No significant systems of note really.

On Thursday (Thanksgiving) however there will be a system moving through the southern Plains. The EURO is the most generous with rain chances locally and we do have some conflicts in the model data regarding how this will play out here in the Plains. Take a look at both the EURO and the GFS for Thursday.

Slide to the RIGHT for the EURO, and the LEFT for the GFS.

Areas down towards eastern Texas, southern Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana should get some rain, but here in the Kansas City region still a bit of a difference. Yes that is snow being depicted by the EURO because the model is developing an upper-level low across Kansas/Oklahoma while the latest GFS and NAM model has this feature more towards El Paso, Texas… just a wee bit of difference.

I’m sort of leaning more towards the non-EURO version for this outcome. This means that there may be a few showers locally in the morning on Thursday and perhaps a few light showers with a front coming through on Thursday afternoon. It won’t be a terrible day overall, perhaps just a lot of clouds in the area to add to the festivities.

More on this later today because there are quite a few ensemble members generating some light rains in the region on Thursday from both the EURO and GFS models. So I do think shower chances are still warranted to this point.

This system then is an issue for the weekend in the eastern U.S. and perhaps even closer to home depending on the model of choice. The GFS solution with things towards El Paso, Texas, means that the system will come out Saturday night. It moves through Arkansas towards the south of the metro, but at least some rain would impact the weekend, especially Sunday. The EURO would create a significant rain event back east over the weekend, perhaps a rain on top of all that snow in western New York too leading to flooding concerns.

So let’s see how this plays out. I’m not comfortable with a perfectly dry forecast though for the entire week though. Some rain is possible at some point over the holiday weekend.

The good news is that overall, it should be an average-to-above-average finish to November regarding temperatures. We’ve broken the back on the persistent cold air intrusions that have been plaguing the central Plains for the last 10 days or so.

The feature photo comes from Bailey Ostrom.

Joe