KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Temperatures this morning are starting out “feeling” almost 60 degrees colder than yesterday morning as the expected and well-forecasted cold front sliced through the region during lunch yesterday. Temperatures were dropping about 1 degree per minute for awhile and in the end we saw more needed rains into the evening.

There were some ice pellets towards the northwest of Kansas City and also up towards northern Missouri. Perhaps even around the metro too right as the rain was ending. Skies this morning are clearing out nicely and with cold northwest winds blowing in more January-like air. It’s going to remain cold all day long into the weekend.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Sunny and chilly. Highs in the mid-to-upper 30s with wind chills in the 30-degree range this afternoon. Winds gusting to 30 mph today.

Tonight: Breezy and cold with lows in the teens to near 20 degrees.

Tomorrow: Cloudy to start then sunny skies towards the afternoon and cold with highs in the low to mid-30s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and not as cold with highs in the lower 40s.

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Discussion:

We’ll always have the first 10 days of the month. Temperatures through yesterday were running 10.5 degrees above average for the month, a super warm start to November. As a matter of fact, it was the ninth-warmest start to the month!

That has all changed… big time.

This morning some winter type air is blowing through. Look at the contrast between where we were yesterday at around 8 a.m. to where we are today. Use the slider bar to see the plunge of colder air into the Plains.

SLIDE TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS MORNINGS COLD CHANGES

Pretty impressive cold air dump into the Plains.

This cold air is going to be long lasting too and get reinforced by perhaps a colder air mass next Wednesday. Expect temperatures to remain well below average into NEXT weekend before we moderate towards Thanksgiving week.

The rains from yesterday were a nice addition to easing the drought. Solid 1/2 to 1-inch totals around the metro, some with more. Northwest Missouri and areas southeast of Kansas City didn’t fare as well.

Via Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network

The rains kept on coming last night in southwest to northeast fashion with some thunderstorms to boot as the colder air was coming down the Missouri River Valley.

Weather around the U.S.

Meanwhile in the northern Plains, a nasty blizzard hit. The worst was in central North Dakota where upwards of two feet of snow fell.

Bismarck, North Dakota, will get a lot of snow (usually) during a winter, but this was impressive even by their standards. It was the second-snowiest calendar day on record for any date, let alone November: 17 inches to be precise. April 14, 2013 is No. 1. They average 8 inches for the month and they just missed the daily record by 3/10 inch. That’s mighty impressive for North Dakota!

Back east, record highs all over the place yesterday from Michigan to New England. Today they’re being affected by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole, which did a lot of damage to the east coast of Florida for the past couple of days, especially around the Daytona Beach area. Today the Mid Atlantic region may have some severe weather issues, including the risk of tornadoes in the eastern Virginia and North Carolina area.

There is already a Tornado Watch for the area out until the middle of the afternoon.

Snow chances in Kansas City

So what about KC? And what about the potential for snow in this cold weather regime?

I showed you in yesterday’s blog the system that is being watched. Today it’s going to come ashore in the Pacific Northwest.

This will be the system to track through the weekend as it drops into the southwest U.S. and then comes out into the southern Plains. How far north or south it gets will determine if it’s a swing and a miss locally for us, or something a bit more problematic heading into Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

What makes this a complicated scenario, as these things usually are, is the dance required to bring this further north affecting the Kansas City region. While the satellite loop above shows a stronger system, there is another small system affecting the northwest territories of Canada. That second system is forecast to dive into the northern U.S. and in effect help to tug the southern system northwards.

This pirouette required usually gives the models fits in execution. The GFS doesn’t really want to have the two dance partners together, while the EURO does to some extent. When they work together, the southern Plains storm have room to come about 100-200 miles farther north, hence we get more into the precipitation.

The GFS keeps the two more separated and the southern system zips too far south of the Interstate 70 corridor area.

It’s plausible, but I’m leery of too-far-south solutions, especially in November. Sometimes the models will do this. So I like to use the ensemble data to sort of look at a broader view of solutions.

The EURO has something cooling with its 50 or so other model members.

The GFS is just sort of meh

A few members have something.

I’ve noticed other models, including the Canadian and the ICON are certainly trending a bit north with the potential. It’s just something that I don’t want to ignore.

Would it be a big snowstorm? Doubtful, and it may initially start as some raindrops and there is dry air that it will be fighting. With that said though, the air will be cooling at night especially, and we could see a rain-to-snow type event unfold late Monday into early Tuesday.

There is potential of accumulating snow in this scenario with the current timing, even on road surfaces if the southern system comes far enough north. I doubt we can get over 2 inches with this, but we could see enough to give us a bit of a road headache for Tuesday morning if certain things come together.

(Morning data update: GFS now shows an accumulating snow in the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. It’s actually digging in the second piece of the puzzle more and also allowing the southern Plains storm to come farther north, expanding the precipitation shield well into the metro.)

So this will be the item of conversation, aside from the cold into the weekend at least.

Finally, back to Nicole: down to a tropical depression this morning. The unusualness of another hurricane in November is interesting.

OK that’s it for the week. Have a great weekend and the team will be watching the Monday potential. If there’s something much more than this, I’ll get a blog out on Sunday with an update.

The feature photo is from Kym Whitney Lane out towards Marshall.

Joe