It’s a pretty bright but cold start to the day around the KC region as temperatures are around 20° but with the winds blowing it’s certainly feeling colder than that.

The good news is that, starting Sunday, we’ll start clawing our way out of the colder regime. Monday through Wednesday next week look much better, 50s are expected and there is a chance that Wednesday may top off near 60°.

So finally we come out of the colder weather. The Thanksgiving forecast is still sort of meh. There may be another cold front coming…and we may be chillier for the holiday. Some data is also showing the potential of snow showers for Thursday night…that we’ll figure out over the coming days.

The big other story is the lake effect snows in the western NY area. These have been detailed extensively in the blog this week…areas south of Buffalo in particular are getting hammered with 2-4″ snow/hour rates and lightning with the snow…numerous reports of thundersnows have been reported

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and cold. The record cold high is 29° set back in 1903. We likely will break that record with highs in the upper 20s. Feeling colder though

Tonight: Clear and cold with lows dropping into the teens before steadying out and perhaps going up a couple of degrees before daybreak.

Tomorrow: Cold again with mostly sunny skies. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Quite windy as well with gusts to 25+

Sunday: Not as cold but windy again with highs in the middle 40s

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Discussion:

So these last 7 days have been something else. The temperature drop hit last Thursday afternoon…and from Friday on, we’ve been well below average.

Remarkably we’re still running slightly above average for the month… 9/10’s of a degree. We were 10.5° above average before things went to heck and a handbag.

Interestingly this isn’t the coldest November 11th-17th week…it rakes 9th overall.

Man…what about 2014…and what’s fascinating about that month is that there are strong parallels to the temperature trends.

The cold regime moved in a the same time…and the colder air released on the 20th…just like what is happening this November as well.

That’s fascinating to me. It was a colder than average December that year…we had about 2″ of snow as well…below average.

Buffalo snowstorm:

Meanwhile the big weather story is the lake effect snows that continue to stream in and pound parts of western NY as well as other areas in MI too. Here are the 24 hour snow totals from the Buffalo area.

I circled a few totals…in blue about 5″ and in red towards the bottom…close to 37″ and still pouring down snow.

The contrast between the 5″ total and the 19.5″ total is about 5 miles or so in distance. The wavering north/south trends in the bands will drive snow forecasters crazy sometimes…a difference of a small number of miles is the difference between getting around OK and not getting around for quite some time.

Here are some of the higher totals into the morning.

The snow is still going strong…

Additional 1-3 FOOT totals are possible in those heavier areas. The bands will start to weaken tonight and tomorrow and drift northwards to some degree…so the heart of Buffalo area will be getting more snow over the weekend as well.

This is what it looks like…

OK that’s about it for the day…have a great weekend.

The feature photo is from Tarah Wilson Kent out in Bucyrus

Joe