Kansas City Weather: Severe storm, rain for Thursday, Friday

The weather is going to be fascinating to watch over the coming two days with strong winds being the main focus locally, quick-hitting rains and perhaps some stronger storms on the MO side tomorrow for an hour or so, and it’s all because of a developing and strengthening system that will be cutting into the upper Midwest tomorrow.

There is another one as well for Tuesday of next week… that too bears watching for stronger storms, and we go through the cycle again with gusty winds and warmer weather moving back into the area.

The storm early next week will likely be a blizzard maker towards and north of I-90 in the upper Midwest.

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Forecast

Today: Sunshine this morning followed by cloudy skies this afternoon. There may be a random sprinkle somewhere. Increasing winds this afternoon with gusts 30-40 MPH possible later today. Highs in the mid-60s

Tonight: Cloudy with a chance of a few showers. Steady temperatures in the lower 60s. Windy… gusts 40+ MPH possible

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with a few scattered showers or storms. Stronger storms should hold off till after lunch on the MO side, especially east of KC. Highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Strong winds gusting to 45 MPH possible. Turning cooler towards and after sunset.

Saturday: Cooler and a bit blustery in the morning. Nice in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-50s

Sunday: Warmer and breezy with highs in the lower 70s with sunshine

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Storm #1

This has been tracked for days while it’s meandered off the coast of California. Now it’s come ashore and will be reorganizing across the central Rockies today and coming into the Plains tomorrow.

At the surface it will be moving along the I-80 corridor into IA tomorrow afternoon toward the north of Des Moines area and that will help to suck up more gulf moisture into the region today, and especially overnight tonight into tomorrow.

Yesterday the air was pretty dry towards eastern TX… today dew points are already around 70° (that’s juicy air) along the immediate Gulf Coast and are approaching 50° into northern Texas near the Red River. Strong south winds will bring those dew points northwards later today and tonight.

This moisture will take the form of lower clouds that will be expending northwards later this morning into this afternoon… so it may be pretty gray this afternoon for first pitch out at The K.

You can see the lower clouds down towards OK this morning especially.

So enjoy the sunshine this morning.

The low-level moisture will be on top of us tonight and the strong winds that I’m expecting from the south will keep temperatures from falling much after 12AM. As a matter of fact, we may wake up to warmer temperatures tomorrow morning.

Any little disturbance coming up from the southwest may trigger a few fast moving showers tonight or tomorrow morning but with the wind fields so strong and fast…they will be hauling through the region.

As a matter of fact I’m not overly impressed by the coverage of any rain over the next couple of days. Some data suggests that there is very little rain tomorrow. I hate to say it will be perfectly dry everywhere but don’t count on getting rain tomorrow.

The moisture from the Gulf region will really come up tonight into tomorrow morning and our dew points will increase into the 60s tomorrow morning. It may actually feel sort of muggy to start the day tomorrow. By summer standards not too much but this is the 1st run of real gulf moisture this year…so it may surprise you. The roads may turn damp as well with condensation.

Dew points by 7AM will be into the 60s

These are the dew points NOT the temperatures

Dew points are a better way for us to see the moisture content of the air. The higher the dew point and the closer it is to the temperatures the higher the relative humidity.

Lower 60 dew points in March/April is pretty juicy.

However with things moving along so quickly, those juicy dew points aren’t going to last long. By lunchtime tomorrow drier Pacific air is coming through eastern KS. The risk of stronger storms is connected to that push of drier air into the Gulf moisture.

That line cutting down the State Line is a dry line/Pacific cold front that will be moving through shifting the winds from the south to the southwest and pushing the low level moisture eastwards. Look at how the dew points may tank by 4PM tomorrow.

Those dew points go from the lower 60s in the morning to the teens in the afternoon…wow!

As this happens the wind may strengthen even more…gusting to near 50 MPH perhaps.

Remember what I mentioned early…the closer the temperature and the dew point are the higher the relative humidity. So we go from high humidity in the morning to temperatures in the 70-75° range and dew points in the teens later in the afternoon…that will be bone dry “Phoenix” like air in the later afternoon.

As far as the risk of storms go…still not overly impressed for the State Line region. There will be a chance as we quickly transition from humid to desert like air. Coverage though may not be great and that’s why I don’t want you to cancel plans for tomorrow.

Severe weather risks appear to be more east of the Metro. Heck the HRRR model this morning doesn’t even have any convection in the area tomorrow afternoon. It’s still on the table though. This week I’ve been focused on two areas for higher risks. Tornado risks towards eastern IA and NE MO and stronger risks towards the Bootheel into eastern AR. The SPC came out with this today.

I’d say that was a good analysis of the situation a couple of days ago on my end that I showed on the newscasts.

We’re not totally out of the woods though for severe weather close to KC. There may still be some stronger storms depending on the timing on the east side of the Metro after 2PM tomorrow depending on the timing of the dry air coming into the region. The hi res NAM model is bullish on this potential by 1-3PM or so. So we’ll watch things.

I still think the higher chances are near or east of 65 highway for stronger storms towards central MO. Whatever happens…they’ll be flying along at a pretty good speed. Gusty winds and some 1″ hail would be the main threats from that activity.

Chillier air wraps into the region tomorrow evening with gusty NW winds cranking into Saturday morning.

Storm #2

Sort of doing something similar to storm #1. Heavier snows/blizzard conditions are possible into the Dakotas and perhaps MN from this one. The higher severe storm risk may be towards the SE of the area but it’s a long ways out.