KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a pretty start to the day in the region with breezy conditions expected for most of the day today. Clouds will be filtering out the sunshine as a disturbance tracks through New Mexico. This will bring mid- and upper-level moisture towards the east-northeast and northeast, and that will at times create mostly cloudy conditions today and possibly tonight as well.

Overall though, this disturbance won’t do a lot for our weather, aside from creating clouds. There may be some showers west of the metro tonight, perhaps a few sprinkles locally. But there is a lot of dry air below 15,000 feet that the snow flakes (!) at that level melting to rain drops will have to overcome. I’m also watching a somewhat similar storm on Sunday too.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and seasonable. Breezy as well with gusts to 25 mph possible. Highs in the lower 60s.

Tonight: Variable clouds with perhaps a sprinkle or two. Lows in the 40-45-degree range.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and pleasant with highs in the mid-60s.

Saturday: About the same with more clouds moving through.

Sunday: More clouds with some showers possible on the Missouri side especially towards the east and southeast of the metro. Highs in the lower 60s.

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Discussion:

Let’s start the morning off with a look at the upper-level system that will impact us over the next 24 hours or so. This is mainly a cloud generator for the region.

You can see it near the 4 Corners region. This will turn into a pretty good rain maker for areas in Texas as well as the southern U.S. Here is a look at the rainfall forecast into Sunday morning.

Note the rains in the Plains. Just enough saturation across parts of the Plains that rain will have a minor impact.

The morning weather map shows the rain in the highlighted areas:

That rain will slowly fade. A new area will develop today (light) across western Kansas and come this way, but it will be going into more and more dry air and will likely fall apart as it approaches the State Line tonight.

Here is the morning run of the HRRR that shows the playout of this. Looks about right.

You can see how the upper-level system is rotating through Texas.

So this is system No. 1 and again as we track it over the coming days, it passes towards the south of Kansas City and eventually moves towards St. Louis.

There is also that little secondary dip that develops. That will likely be a cloud generator for us on Sunday with a small chance of some showers, especially on the Missouri side.

The model comparison for rain totals is next by the end of the day on Sunday. The GFS is wetter and does bring the rain towards roughly Interstate 70. The EURO is a bit more southeast.

I’ve been talking about possibly needing some rain chances for Sunday for the last few days on the air. Still watching this.

Swipe right for the EURO model and left for the GFS model

I think the GFS is overdone with the southeast Kansas rains, but this will likely be a good cloud maker for us, if nothing else.

Warm weather returns

After that though, we warm up. Starting on Monday (Halloween), we push 70 degrees, then we should be well into the 70s for several days next week to start November off.

Here is a look at the GFS model showing temperature anomalies for the first week of November.

This might be about 5 degrees overdone, on average. GFS bias in play, but it’s still a warm pattern.

Here are more specifics off the EURO. I think there is more potential with the higher winds expected.
Next Wednesday into Friday will be pretty windy as well.

Our next decent rain chance may wait until later next week.

The latest drought report came out with some decent news for areas southeast of the metro. Areas in green in the map have seen some improvement:

The needed rains on Monday were helpful, but didn’t change the drought status locally in Kansas City. The changes often are slower to work into the report.

Here is the latest for us.

Our feature photo comes from Grizzle. It was a neat sunset last night and perhaps another good one is coming tonight depending on the clouds.

Joe