I’ve been on vacation for a week or so…went up into northern MI to visit with family…hoping to see some snow. The weekend before I got there…they got a nice lake event with 6-12″ of snow…by the time I got there it had melted down to 1-2″ and then when we were there thanks to a couple of windy days with highs near 50°…it vanished.

Of course the one day it snowed…we were driving on the way back to the airport and it was a wind driven snow in spots…typical for the Lake Belt. Winds going at 40 MPH and patches of moderate snows. So not exactly my snow dream…so it goes I guess.

I see the winds followed be back to KC…wind advisories are in effect for the region today into this evening as we await a cold front that will sweep the milder 60s today…into the 30s this evening…so we have that going for us I guess.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy this morning then clearing this afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds may gust 40-50 MPH at times today.

Tonight: The front should move from north to south through the Metro between 7-10 PM. Temperatures will drop about 20° in less than 1 hour…and drop some more in a few hours. Windy into the wee hours as well. Lows down to near 20°

Saturday: Sunny and chillier with highs in the mid to upper 30s

Sunday: Partly cloudy and not as cold with highs in the mid to upper 40s

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Discussion:

As we start this blog…low level moisture is streaming northwards. Clouds are moving in around 2-3,000 feet above us and will be around into the early afternoon. The winds are already going, and have been all night really, gusting to around 45 MPH…and may get stronger today. The winds above the surface today are going at 60-70 MPH. So there is a lot of air movement happening right now above KC.

That’s one reason why today is windy. The other is an approaching cold front that will move into the region early this evening from NW to SE through the Metro.

The surface pressure analysis (which should live update for you through the day) shows what we refer to as a strong pressure gradient through the Plains. The black lines below show the lines of equal pressure (isobars). When there are many lines, in a relatively short expanse, this means that there is a large change of air pressure from one point to another.

Current surface pressure analysis

The fancy term for all this is the Pressure Gradient Force. Air flows from high pressure to lower pressure. The stronger the “force” the stronger the surface winds. You see all those lines around us…strong winds.

Tonight as the front to the NW of the region gets closer the winds may drop off briefly…then when the front moves through…the winds increase again for about 6 hours or so.

At 8AM this morning…here is the front.

Notice we were 51° at 8AM while the northern Dakotas were near 0°

The dump of cold air coming into the area…will be short lived and start moving away later tomorrow…so that by Sunday we moderate nicely and Monday could be another warm day depending on the low cloud potential.

All these rapid fire temperature changes though aren’t doing much for our rain/snow prospects. There may be some moisture later next week…but that’s iffy right now and as of today at least…there isn’t a lot to hang our hat on for precipitation chances for a week or so.

Once that cold front moves in this evening…you’ll notice the winds shifting from the SSW to the NW…and they will be cranking this evening behind the front as well.

So here are the forecast temperatures off the HRRR model…for 4PM/6P/8PM/10PM. The reality is the air may be even colder faster behind the front.

4PM
6PM
8PM
10PM

Again tomorrow is colder…our average high for this time of the year is 47°…we’ll be well above that today and below that tomorrow…closer to that on Sunday.

Speaking of which…November, despite it’s wild gyrations, ended up just a tad below average for the month. We had the 9th warmest start to the month for the 1st 9 days…then one of the coldest 10 day mid November stretches…then we moderated for the end of the month…in the end it almost all evened out.

Speaking of which #2…we started meteorological winter yesterday…this starts on December 1st and runs through the last day of February. Meteorological fall is the 1st day of September through the last day of November. It was our 51st warmest and our 36th driest fall meteorological season.

Then there’s this…

It’s not totally out of the question that we could see some additional activity in the central/eastern Atlantic next week though…IF so that would be Owen.

Have a great weekend…

The feature photo comes from Matthew Reinschmidt

Joe