It’s a cloudy, and for some drippy start to the day with cool for May temperatures continuing in the region thanks to the slow moving upper level storm that is pretty much right on top of the region this morning.

Various disturbances spinning around the circulation of the storm continue to foster areas of rain in parts of the region this morning. Today, the main emphasis will be off towards the east of KC…an area that hasn’t seen much in the way of significant rain so far.

Many though are over 2″ of rain…some approaching 3″ of rain and there may still be some leftover showers redeveloping today, especially this afternoon.

This though should do it with the storm as skies only slowly clear by daybreak tomorrow…and we can finally enjoy some nicer spring…to back to summer weather for the holiday weekend.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers again. Highs in the lower 60s

Tonight: Cloudy with some clearing after 4AM. Lows in the lower 50s

Tomorrow: Becoming sunny, perhaps some morning fog too, especially on the KS side. Highs in the mid 70s

The Holiday weekend: Overall sunny, windy and warm to hot. Highs 85-90°. Lows in the 70s. Still watching for a small potential of a few showers sometime on Saturday.

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Discussion:

This storm, while it’s been a pain in the you know what for the past few days…really is something to see from a satellite perspective. Sort of unusual for this time of the year…but it’s really pretty to watch from 22,000 miles up into space.

It is cut-off from the main jet stream up to the north of the region…as a result it sort of has a mind of it’s own…just slowly drifting on by.

You can see it clearly, even up to about 18,000 feet or so…

See the closed system along the State Line…that’s our storm system.

At the surface this morning though…the surface storm is displaced farther to the east of the area…

This puts us at the surface at least into NW flow…and for the last few days in the rain cooled air west of the region…it’s been in the 50s.

Now that rain cooled air is moving into our region (at the surface). So it’s going to be a struggle for us to get much above the lower 60s unless there are some serious breaks in the clouds, and while there may be a few…I’m not expecting too many today at least.

This storm has brought KC close to 2.5″ of moisture. We’ve also now had 5, soon to be 6 straight days with below average temperatures. So we started the month with 5 days straight below average…then 14 days straight above average and now 6 days straight below average. Weird month.

We’re now up to about 5.5″ of rain this month…the wettest month of the year on average and that is above average but a bit. We’ll see IF KCI gets more rain this afternoon.

After the storm moves far enough east aloft at least…we’ll start to clear out…but that may not happen till early tomorrow.

There is still a little disturbance I’m watching as the warmer to hotter air builds into the region on Saturday. I totally can’t rule out a few showers with this although I think coverage will be on the low side and perhaps favoring the MO side a bit more.

Then it should really warm up for the holiday weekend.

The next threat of rain/storms comes our way as we head towards Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. There will be a cold front coming into the near 90° air at some point. There are some timing differences on the data between Tuesday and Wednesday…both could have implications on whether or not we get severe storms. IF the front comes into more instability a the right time…we could have bigger storms…IF the front comes through at the wrong time or IF the storms are stronger west of of the region they may be on a weakening trend as they approach the region whenever the timing works out.

It’s too early to get into the specifics…but likely either Tuesday or Wednesday of next week…rain will come followed by a couple of cooler days afterwards.

These rains are helpful in keeping things nice and green heading into June. There have been years where May doesn’t produce the rains…and that sets things up for hotter and drier weather into the summer. At least right now…there is enough frequency to the moisture that we’re in pretty good shape into the 1st half of the month.

The severe weather season continues to be a weird one in the Plains at least. I’m hoping the SPC will update some of their graphics for the yearly totals in the next week. They only go through late April at this point in terms of the number of reports.

We are slightly above the averages though in some data that goes through yesterday in terms of tornado reports…

Hail reports though are below average…

and the wind reports are slightly above average fueled by some impressive wind producing storms.

That’s it for today…I may or may not get to a blog tomorrow. The feature photo comes from Sam Hamilton out towards Cainsville, MO up towards the IA border of some of the building clouds from yesterday

Joe