KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We’re coming into a weather pattern that can surprise at times. This morning, as I start this blog, there are some unscheduled showers in eastern Kansas providing just a pinch of rain for areas affected. We’ll see how long they can last. There will be other chances as well tomorrow into the weekend.

We can use the rain in many areas, especially on the south side where temperatures, in part due to the browning of the grass are trending higher than the north side of the metro. We saw this again yesterday, as the south side of the metro was running a few degrees hotter than the north side of Kansas City.

Overall though, the pattern is more or less seasonable with the threat of more significant heat still about a week or so away.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Isolated showers fading on the Kansas side then partly cloudy. Seasonably hot with highs in the lower to mid-90s.

Tonight: Isolated near daybreak showers are possible. Lows in the 70s.

Tomorrow: Isolated to scattered showers possible before 10 a.m. then partly cloudy and hot. Highs in the lower 90s.

The weekend: The best rain chance may be Saturday night into Sunday morning. 90s are likely both days, although maybe in the the 80s on Sunday, depending on the duration of the leftover morning rains.

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Discussion:

We’ve had it pretty good these last several days. It’s been near average for highs at least, and compared to other parts of the country (especially Texas) where the simmering heat continues to break records and the power grid is holding on by a thread… we’re doing OK.

Yesterday we hit 90-plus degrees for the 21st time this year. The average is roughly 41. There are plenty of 90s coming our way over the next several weeks.

The dryness, as I’ve mentioned on the air quite a bit these last few nights is increasingly an issue. On the south side, you can clearly see the browning process and it’s gradually spreading northwards. The rain situation over the coming three days will go a long way in determining whether some areas teeter more towards initial drought conditions.

The new drought report came out this morning and we’ve seen an increase along the Missouri River area.

Notice that thin line of “moderate drought” along and south of the Missouri River towards the east of the metro. That’s a new addition this week. Also note the large area of moderate drought and, in a small patch, severe drought conditions across the southern third of Missouri as well. That has been percolating for awhile.

So obviously rain is needed. There are opportunities and they’re tied to little disturbances that can roll down from Nebraska/Iowa and move along the right path to create areas of rain. There is one this morning coming into parts of the metro:

It’s a small disturbance that may be showing what could happen tomorrow. Didn’t see this one coming last night. There might be a 1/10 inch of rain with some of the heavier downpours perhaps.

We will have another risk of something later tonight or tomorrow morning as well, especially for the metro and northwards.

Then on Saturday, there is actually a bit stronger of a wave coming through the region that has a better chance of generating something more widespread and perhaps appreciable. This could actually linger into Sunday morning as well.

There is a strong disturbance that should provide a good amount of lift to get rain going and aloft early on Sunday. The air will be fanning out as well. We call that divergence and that allows the air below it to rise a bit more efficiently. The net result is extra lift and hopefully some extra rain.

So there are opportunities, and if we can muster some decent rains, then that will recharge the soil situation and restart the process of drying things out. It will also help to pop the dew points again, which is something that we’ve gotten a break from these last several days, even with a bit of a southern breeze.

Here is another way of seeing how the top soil moisture has evaporated away or been utilized by the vegetation over the last month or so.

Note that the biggest issues are mainly south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Also note the better news, although with some flooding now in the burn areas out towards New Mexico.

Hopefully we can change some of those colors around here over the next 72 hours.

Did you see the Supermoon last night? It was pretty as it was coming up in the eastern sky.

Matthew Smith with the feature photo.

Joe