KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s shaping up to be another nice day in the region, much the same as yesterday when we started with sunshine and then by lunch popped up the cumulus clouds in the area as the heating of the day really kicked in. Those clouds by the way are formed when the sun’s energy heats up the terrain then rising air cools and the moisture in that rising air condenses. The clouds then are formed.

It’s fascinating to see this process play out on the satellite images because sometimes, with the right conditions in place, there will be areas where the clouds won’t form, perhaps over rivers or larger lakes, anywhere where the rising air isn’t as strong because the water on the ground doesn’t allow the air to rise as efficiently.

Anywho, the blog today does have the threat of some rain in it, so let’s get into that.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Sunny with again those fair weather cumulus clouds forming. Highs in the mid-80s.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the mid-60s. There is a small chance of an isolated shower/storm early in the morning.

Friday: A small chance of a morning shower/storm, but better chances in the mid-to-late afternoon into the evening. A couple of the storms may be on the strong side. Highs well into the 80s and a bit more humid.

The weekend: Odds favor generally dry weather although northern Missouri may see a few pop ups Saturday and Sunday looks drier for all. Highs in the mid-80s both days.

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Discussion:

Also of note: This will likely be the last blog for awhile. I’m heading to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for a weather conference. This will be my first conference in about four years since the COVID mess started… anxious to see how that plays out. I’ve been to Pittsburgh once before, a long time ago… heard great things and am excited to try to get to a Pirates game in the pretty looking stadium.

Onwards.

The weather has been wonderful these last few days. It’s almost starting to feel like the end of summer out there. In the big picture, there isn’t any intense heat heading back into the region for awhile. There should be some big rains down south into Oklahoma/Texas helping to ease their drought over the coming days as well.

Let’s start there. The new drought report came out this morning.

Pretty rough down there, although there has been good rains along the Rio Grande Valley into southwest Texas associated with a tropical system that has happened in the last couple of days.

Oklahoma and most of central and northern Texas though is in rough shape. But look what’s potentially coming over the next five days: rain, and lots of it!

That’s a big rain for that area, and widespread, something that hasn’t happened in a long time for them.

The desert monsoon is also in full gear and will get another boost over the coming days as moisture from that same remnant tropical system comes into play as it moves into northern Mexico.

There are some areas out there that have had almost 10 times their normal rainfall in the last 30 days, with more coming into Arizona and New Mexico at least.

You can see the corridor of better moisture compared to average at least, in western New Mexico and eastern Arizona. California is still rather messy in some areas at least.

Lake Mead in Nevada has actually gone up a foot and a half, which sounds great until you realize that is still down 25 FEET from last year, and down 41 FEET from 2020, and more than 180 FEET below full pool.

When will it rain again in Kansas City?

As far as we go…

There will be sort of a weak front sliding into the larger region tomorrow morning and may not make it close to Kansas City tomorrow. As a result, the showers/storms connected to it may struggle to get to the area tomorrow morning with any sort of significant coverage. Assuming the front doesn’t get into the northwest part of Missouri or northeast Kansas (while some clouds may though), we should have mostly dry weather tomorrow until the front gets a bit more of a push tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Ahead of the front we may warm up pretty well, depending on the cloud situation and a run into the upper 80s wouldn’t surprise me with enough sunshine. That means that with a front arriving, temperatures in the upper 80s and instability increasing, especially north and west of the Interstate 35 corridor, that storms should pop in the afternoon, and with the flow aloft being from the west to east, it’s possible some more coverage of those storms are in the cards.

I don’t want to overpromise the rain coverage though. It doesn’t look like a solid line, but there may be some decent rains in some areas, perhaps 1-plus inch, but again the coverage might not be 100% on this. With the instability around as well, some of the storms may be a bit frisky and it’s not out of the question some smaller hail or gustier winds may occur in a few localized areas.

A few more storms are possible tomorrow night as well, especially from Kansas City southwards.

Then as far as the weekend goes, a rather interesting upper-level system will be lurking in Iowa as it drops down from the northern Plains. This represents a pocket of cooler temperatures aloft, and combined with the warmer surface air, this may allow for clouds to form and grow upwards yielding scattered showers and storms developing up north and moving down towards the south-southeast. So it’s worth watching, especially on the Missouri side for some scattered storms in the afternoon Saturday.

Tough to say if this will impact the football game, but it’s not totally out of the question since it’s a mid-afternoon game with temperatures well into the 80s.

A final note for you. The updated fall outlook was issued this morning.

OK that will do it for awhile. The feature photo is from Kym Whitney Lane… pretty sunset last night.

Joe