Joe’s Weather Blog: A roasty toasty weekend as we dry out even more (FRI-6/18)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — If we get to 100° today, it would be the first 100° temperature in about three years and the first 100° day during the month of June since 2012!

That’s pretty impressive, and we’re starting the day with two things to help us get there: lots of sunshine and more wind right off the bat. This stirs the air and helps it heat up, setting the path to 100°. The record today is 104° set back in 1953… don’t think we get there though.

The weekend will be more of the same, perhaps not as extreme thanks to clouds. I can’t promise perfectly dry weather though. There will be risks of storms tomorrow morning and again later Sunday, but the highest risk of rain may well be on Monday, and we’ll see how much we get from that. I’m not overly confident it will be a lot, which won’t be helpful at all.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and hot with highs near 100°. Breezy as well.

Tonight: Fair skies with some potential of isolated storms towards daybreak. Lows in the mid-to-upper-70s. Breezy as well.

Saturday: Hot and humid with the potential of isolated storms. Highs in the mid-90s.

Sunday: More of the same, windy though, with highs well into the 90s. Summer starts I think at 10:07 p.m.

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Discussion:

Not a lot more to write about the heat. Yesterday was interesting as the clouds kept temperatures from reaching their full potential, but then once the clouds thinned out, temperatures went to town. We soared into the upper 90s and made it up to 98° at KCI. Olathe Industrial Airport hit 103°.

Today will be the best chance of getting to 100°. Again, we’re starting the day with sunshine and there isn’t any significant clouds coming this way today. Winds are from the southwest. Areas southwest of Kansas City and west too yesterday soared to 100-105° yesterday so we’re bringing in this air today. The grass though is still green, especially in the northland, and that isn’t as favorable for extreme heat. I still think 100° is a good forecast for today.

There will be a front to the north of the area today. It’s sort of a weak front being somewhat aided by some outflow from various showers/storms up there.

More storms should fire in northern Missouri tonight and perhaps shove that boundary a bit farther south overnight. If it can make it towards the Interstate 70 corridor, there is a chance for some scattered storms in the area tomorrow morning. Also some of the storms in northern and northeastern Missouri will be strong. Winds are the main threat with some hail overnight.

The front should sort of stall and slightly retreat north tomorrow and fizzle out. That will place the area into the hot and humid air mass that is around today. Clouds may help in keeping us in the 90s tomorrow.

Then on Sunday, there may be a weak disturbance coming our way during the day. While a few showers aren’t out of the question, odds are we’ll just have some clouds around helping to take the edge off the temperatures.

Now the next issue is what happens when a stronger cold front comes into the area Sunday night or Monday morning. This front would be coming into the area during less instability in the atmosphere. Also the mid-level temperatures are going to be pretty warm so we’ll be rather capped. That isn’t a good setup for a heat break squall line of storms to move through.

The cap though will weaken through the day on Monday as the front is down towards Interstate 44 Monday. This may allow some activity to develop behind the actual front, so while not severe it would at least be somewhat helpful. Rain amounts though may not exactly be overwhelming with this at least for the metro.

The EURO is not exactly generous with the rain at this point.

Average of the various model runs is about 1/3″ or so. We’ll need whatever we can get for areas that missed out on the rain a week ago. Right now, it’s just not a great setup in what should be a good scenario for heat-breaking rains, which typically happens when we break the back of significant heat.

The main story though with this will be the push of cooler air Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday especially looks wonderful with morning lows in the mid-50s and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to near 80°. Potentially one of our best “summer” days this season.

Yesterday, the latest drought report came out, and the news continues to be awful for the western US.

81% of the region is in extreme to exceptional drought.

This caught my eye last night. Remember the Oroville Dam in California. A few years ago, it was in danger of collapsing because of flooding rains and failing infrastructure at the dam site. Well now the water level is so low that they may have to shut down the dam there, and that means turning off the power generation capabilities.

Then there was this today from Arizona. Lake levels are getting so low in various parts of the states that helicopters that are used to fight fires can’t draw water from them anymore to help with the firefighting.

Then there is this from California.

They need rain. In Arizona, the monsoon season has “officially” started but it will be awhile before favorable setups happen for the lower Valley regions there.

OK that’s it for the week. Have a good weekend and the feature photo is from Matt Golden of the sunrise over the Kansas River near Edwardsville. Nice shot!

Joe

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