Joe’s Weather Blog: Another system brings rain for us and big snows for others (TUE-10/12)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a beautiful and crisp start to our Tuesday in the Kansas City area, with nice weather expected today as temperatures pop into the mid-70s in the region. This will be ahead of a strong storm that will be developing and moving into the upper Midwest over the next 24-36 hours or so.

For Kansas City, this will mean the development of scattered storms this evening and rain/storms to start the day tomorrow.

For others much further out, the season’s first snows are likely and there may be some significant snow across the western Dakotas into the Rockies where winter storm warnings are now in effect.

This is storm No. 2 of a three-storm strong with the last one due in later Thursday evening into Friday.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny this morning then more clouds this afternoon. Mild with highs in the mid-70s.

Tonight: Increasing clouds with scattered showers/storms possible after 9 p.m. Turning breezy as well with lows in the lower 60s.

Tomorrow: Rain chances are highest in the AM with fast clearing expected after that perhaps closer to 10 a.m. Warmer too with highs well into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler but pleasant with highs in the 70° range with showers/storms redeveloping towards the later evening.

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Discussion:

An active pattern persists in the region for the rest of the week as storm No. 2 will be influencing the region starting later today and tonight. Clouds are slowly expanding towards the northeast, but there is a lot of dry air that needs to be overcome with moisture before we can start getting rain to form.

The atmospheric moisture that will be moving our way will move up through the southern Plains today and eventually, towards mid-evening, move through the region. That is important because as the moisture above us increases, the surface dew points will slowly increase too overnight. Initially both items are sort of out of sync but eventually they combine their talents and, if nothing else, scattered storms will be developing and moving towards the north-northeast and northeast sometime this evening.

Odds are these storms will not be severe, although I can’t totally rule out maybe some small hail with a storm or two, especially on the Kansas side. This would be roughly from 10 p.m. through 3 a.m. or so.

Farther west, the storms will likely be more frisky with the potential of severe weather in central and western Kansas. Those storm will organize into a squall line and march towards the east-northeast.

All modes of severe weather are possible out there, including tornadoes.

The main threat of tornadic storms out across the western Plains will be during the evening and overnight hours as the low-level jet stream, a river of air up around 5,000 feet, increases as the storms move eastwards.

Here is the way the 12Z HRRR model plays things out:

For timing: 18Z is 1p.m., 21Z is 4p.m., 0Z is 7 p.m., 3Z is 10 p.m., 6Z is 1 a.m.

You can see the line coming eastwards and notice how things race through the area after daybreak. We should see rapid clearing afterwards and nice weather for most of the day.

Meanwhile, the storm itself will be moving in the upper Midwest and Dakotas. It will be a dynamic system as I showed you yesterday. This means there will be a cold air side to the storm and that means (even in October) snow. More than just casual snow too… significant snow.

That leads to a bunch of warnings:

There is already thundersnow happening up in Wyoming:

Some of this snow will go as far south as the ski areas in western Colorado as well.

Heck there was even snow last night in northern Arizona around Flagstaff:

This is the the bigger picture though:

7PM Today
7AM Wednesday

Behind this storm a slug of dry air from the southwest U.S. will move through the area tomorrow and into Thursday before another fast-moving system comes through the Plains on Friday with additional rains likely in the area. This rain as well could start on Thursday night.

Friday will likely be a day where highs struggle around 60° or so. Then after some cool weekend mornings, the afternoons look glorious with some real fall weather this weekend.

Hopefully this rain and combination of sunshine and crisp mornings get the fall leaves going.

The feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in Iowa.

Joe

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