Joe’s Weather Blog: Can we make another run to 70°? (FRI-11/19)

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It’s Friday! Clouds will be moving through the region over the coming days…as a lot of upper level moisture will be flowing through the region. Overall though, aside from a lot of wind…it should be pretty OK into the middle of next week and generally dry.

There is a system we’re watching for later next week though. Ahead of that system there should be more noticeable warming…and there is one day next week (Wednesday) where temperatures can really pop. That isn’t set in stone and will depend on the speed of the next incoming front…clouds…and rain chances…but it’s one the table.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds, mostly high, breezy and cool but really just seasonable. Highs 50-55°

Tonight: Breezy with partly cloudy skies. Lows in the upper 30s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and breezy again.. A bit warmer with highs in the upper 50s

Sunday: Blustery with a mix of sun/clouds. Windy for the game with highs in the lower 50s

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Discussion:

It may not be the brightest…it may not be the warmest…but overall we’re in good shape for awhile around these parts. Thoughts in the middle of November heading towards Thanksgiving are for dry roads for travel…and weather just good enough to be bearable I think.

For the most part we’re there…but there are some things that need to be watched including some sort of system that may be near or south of here on Thanksgiving Day or thereabouts.

The morning satellite picture shows clouds off towards the west of the region. A lot of Pacific moisture is streaming into the western half of the country.

and will be coming towards us at various times. There are some little disturbances that will embedded in the flow as well. Odds are that the lower 15,000 feet of the atmosphere will be too dry to support any precipitation though…but the sun, especially tomorrow, will tend to be filtered out by these clouds.

The flow aloft is also very quick…so we’re seeing fast moving air masses come into and through the area. This is helping cause the winds to be more active…typically they get going in November…and this next 7 day period will feature quite a bit of wind…coming from different directions.

Tomorrow actually might be OK from a wind standpoint. Sunday will see stronger NW winds develop. Monday the winds will drop off again…then increase Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

There really isn’t anything too exciting to write about the weather into Tuesday. Monday will be a chillier day as another cool shot of air comes southwards. While there will be building snow cover in Canada…there won’t be a lot of snow in the US for this chillier air mass to be going over. So it should modify as it comes southwards over the bare ground. Take a look at the forecast snow amounts into Monday evening. Note the bareness across the northern US.

So on Sunday as the cooler air starts dropping in…while windy…it will be moderated…and really the brunt of the chillier air will be deflected towards the Great Lakes region. Here is a look at the temperature anomalies at 5,000 feet. It’s always good to show you these because it can reveal the cooler air masses a bit better.

and you can see the warmer air already flowing in through the western US and SW Canada…that is poised to come down towards our area Tuesday and Wednesday.

So that by Tuesday afternoon…this is the same version as above…and look at the warm air spilling into the Plains and upper Midwest.

Model data shows the air a few thousand feet above us roughly at 50°…this would mean surface temperatures in the 60s…and I think that’s doable.

Then on Wednesday…let’s focus in…same idea…this is warm!

Model forecasts show the air just above the surface approaching 60°! That would support near 70° on the ground. The thing we’ll be watching though is clouds and whether or not that can cut us a few degrees.

I will be bullish though on the forecasts this evening as I usually am in these situations. It hasn’t failed me at this point this fall.

So with all that said…I want to show you the EURO/GFS forecast for next Thursday night (Thanksgiving).

I think the EURO sort of freaked out a bit…there isn’t a lot of support for it in other data and it’s issue is how it tries to figure out the what’s going on in the Gulf Of Alaska…which seems a stretch but that is where this mischief is coming from.

Here is the EURO…for 12AM Friday morning.

Well now…

Now the GFS…

Not so much…maybe a few sprinkles

Finally another version of the EURO…

This I think may be the more correct solution.

There is a better way of showing how the models crank out some snow…and that is by showing you the ensemble output…specifically for snow. IF a lot of the members of the ensembles are on the snow path…it will raise an eye…if not…well it gets shoved on the back burner. Right now I’m shoving this on the back burner

Only about 5-6 members of the EURO suite has snow (and some just barely) out of 50 runs

and the GFS…

Only about 5-6 out of 30 members has snow

Even the snowy Canadian model isn’t too thrilled either.

Only about 3-4 out of 20 members has snow

So I’m not too excited about all this really at this point.

This will be all resolved based on how the models handle this hot mess in the Pacific.

Let’s go up to around 18,000 feet…the 500 mb level and track these disturbances…again focus on the mess in the northern Pacific.

Notice how it drops down into Mexico…this loop goes through next Saturday morning…

IF it doesn’t drop into Mexico…something more interesting (or at least wet) could happen here for around Thanksgiving…so it’s worth watching if nothing else.

Have a great weekend, The feature shot is from Tedd Scofield of the lunar eclipse from earlier this morning. I was asleep!

Joe

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