Joe’s Weather Blog: Does what happens in Canada stay in Canada? (TUE-11/16)

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Good Tuesday to you! It’s going to get increasingly windy out there this morning.

But during this time of the year you need the wind to stir up the air…and when you have a mild to warm air mass above the ground…that wind helps to “mix” things up.

Mixed air with the right wind direction can warm up fast…and that’s what I’m hoping for today.

As a matter of fact the air about 1,000 feet up is already at 70° this morning while here at the surface as I type this…it’s close to 50°.

So IF there was the Empire State Building in downtown KC…and you got in an elevator on the 1st floor and went up to the top…the temperature outside would be about 70°!

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Forecast:

Today: Variable high clouds for most of the day, windy and warm. Gusts to 30 MPH possible by early afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s

Tonight: Clouds slowly lower and thicken. There may be a few showers around before daybreak. Temperatures will be near 60° at midnight (the high for Wednesday) then drop near daybreak to the 40s. Rain chances will move out near daybreak and to the south/east of the Metro. 40s to lower 50s are likely tomorrow with clouds and some sunshine

Thursday: We’ll start in the upper 20s and warm up into the upper 40s with sunshine

Friday: Milder and breezy conditions with highs back into the 50s

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Discussion:

An interesting and not that uncommon profile of the atmosphere this morning thanks to the balloon launch in Topeka.

See that area that I circled? That shows the temperature of the air as the balloon ascends. The black numbers are °C…so 10°C =50°F and 20°C =68°F. Also note the thin black lines going from the left and tilting upwards towards the right…those represent the 10°C/20°C temperatures going up through the atmosphere. Notice that the RED line is to the right of the 20°C…the red line is the actual trace of the temperature as the ballon goes upwards.

That circled area that I added in is around 70°…and it’s only about 1000 feet above the ground! Meanwhile at the time of the sounding (6AM) the temperature was about 46° or so. So the temperature went from 46° to 70° in about 1000 feet!

That is an inversion! The winds today will stir the air and mix the lower part of the atmosphere up to homogenous the lower part of the atmosphere and the ground and boom we get 70s.

The record today is 77° and it’s not out of the question just based on mixing alone. IF we would have full sunshine today…we could get there…but I’m concerned about all the clouds filtering the sun to reduce the mid November sun enough to hold us down a few degrees. The mid November sun in equivalent to the mid January sun angle…so it’s a lot tougher to truly max out your potential. 5 years ago we did hit 74° though on this date…again with more sunshine. So it could go higher.

Onwards.

A cold front will change this though…it arrives sometime in the early morning tomorrow. The timing of the front appears to be around 1-4 AM or so. The winds will switch towards the north and the 50s to near 60° weather will be shoved away replaced by chillier temperatures tomorrow.

3AM Wednesday

So that towards daybreak…we have roughly these temperatures…

6AM Wednesday

The rain prospects are there…

As the front approaches south winds will continue to bring up surface moisture. Dew points are close to 60 south of the region and while we won’t get there, dew points should come into the mid to maybe upper 50s tonight.

The green contours are the dew points. Starting at 50°/55°60°

So the moist surface air will be interacting with the front moving in.. The issue is that the front coming in is at the worst time…2-4AM isn’t great for any instability this time of the year. So I’m really not sure how much rain we can get from this. The HRRR model gives us little to none.

The higher res NAM model has a thin line of rain coming through though.

Then tomorrow we sort of wallow around in the 40s to lower 50s depending on IF we can break out into some sunshine.

Not much else through the weekend. Then there is next Monday and to the title of the blog.

Canada has been having a go of it lately. Devastating flooding in western Canada has left the roads in and out of Vancouver closed or destroyed do to mudslides. The same part of Canada that was hit so hard with hundreds of deaths do to the heat wave setting all time records this past summer has seen historic flooding in the last few days.

Well as we move east into Canada it’s about to snow…and maybe a lot.

Total snow expected for the next week

Meanwhile a layer of fresh snow and a developing colder air mass in NW Canada that will be migrating southwards and southeastwards.

5000 foot anomalies…so you can see the core of the colder air mass better (12AM Sunday)

Now the issue becomes does what happen in Canada stay in Canada? The answer is no. That cold air will come into the US for sure. The question is where is it directed towards. Does is barrel down the Plains or does it it shunted farther east towards the Lakes and the Northeast part of the US?

The model data has colder air here on Monday..that is an increasing confident forecast. The extent though is still debatable. The EURO has more of the brunt of colder air here.

Noon Monday (5000′ temperature anomalies)

The GFS sort of deflects it a bit more…

GFS model 12PM Monday

So colder but not crazy.

My feeling is that, based on some other pieces of information…including what’s happening in Greenland aloft which I showed you yesterday and will dive into tomorrow…we’ve got a 1-2 punch of colder weather coming including Monday and then perhaps sometime on Thanksgiving.

We’ll see how things play out!

The feature photo today is from Vicki Anderson Dolt.

Joe

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