KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a foggy start to the day around the region as dense fog has once again formed early this morning. The hope is that the low clouds and fog won’t last quite as long today as it has for the past couple of days and burn off quicker. This should result in a bit more of a warmup later this afternoon.

We’ve had quite the run of above-average highs over the last few weeks or so. Yesterday though was below average. Average today is 83 degrees. We may be right near that number depending on when the sunshine comes back out areawide. Yesterday we popped to near 80 degrees in the last few hours of the afternoon when the sunshine returned.

The other real issue we’ve got is the dryness which has become a bigger “thing” again. It appears there is one chance of rain showing up on Saturday night that may last into early Sunday. We’ll adjust the timing of this though over the coming days.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Clouds/fog this morning then becoming mostly sunny at some point this afternoon with highs in the low-to-mid-80s.

Tonight: Clear skies then some fog again possible towards daybreak Wednesday. Lows in the low-to-mid-60s.

Tomorrow: More sunshine with highs in the mid-80s.

Thursday: A bit hotter with highs in the upper 80s.

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Discussion:

We’re coming into the time of the year where we start to see more powerful cold fronts try and enter the United States. Typically the bulk of the chill will stay across the upper Midwest or the Great Lakes region, but depending on the flow pattern, the right combination can deliver fall like weather to the Plains. We are watching for one of these types of fronts later in the weekend.

Also what is typical is that these fronts bring some rain but not a lot. Unless they’re running into a lot of Gulf moisture, we typically can get some rain, and hopefully that plays out over the weekend because it’s really drying out again around the region. The rain chances are there but it would likely be an overnight Saturday/early Sunday thing. That isn’t giving me a lot of confidence that it will be all that generous.

Behind the front: “fake fall” season No. 1 may enter the picture. Highs on Sunday and Monday may be shy of 80 degrees with lows well down into the 50s possible. Especially Monday and perhaps Tuesday morning as well. You’ll be thinking that’s it… no more heat.

Well usually it doesn’t work that way, and I expect the heat to once again return next week. 85-90 degrees isn’t out of the question, perhaps timed out to the home opener of the Chiefs game as well, at least for tailgating.

Speaking of the heat, the western U.S. is having themselves a nasty heatwave, especially California where the Central Valley around the Sacramento area has seen all-time highs for the month of September. Near 114 degrees yesterday and more of that, perhaps hotter, is coming this week.

Record highs today are possible to likely once again. The temperatures below represent a run towards record heat today. Many of these areas saw records yesterday and more are likely tomorrow as well.

Colorado also has been getting into the action a bit as well.

Also of note is Hurricane Kay which is off the Baja California area.

Here is a wide view of the storm.

Kay is actually going to come farther north than typical over the coming days and while it won’t hit California (remaining well out to sea), the moisture from the circulation may bring needed rains to southern California later in the week and weekend.

Also a ton of high surf is expected as well peaking on Saturday, especially for south-facing beaches.

There was actually a hurricane back in the mid-70s that brought some heavy rains to California as well, hurricane Katherine.

Farther north where the heat this week will be worse, there is concern for dry lightning storms to ignite more fires in northern California. Just enough atmospheric moisture aloft to fire storms, but not enough near surface moisture to allow the rain to make it to the ground. A recipe for lightning without rain. That lightning may set off more blazes. Yesterday there were more fire starts popping, and with the intense heat this week, more are expected as fire season in California really gets going over the coming days.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic side of things is hopping. Danielle is still out there wallowing around as a low-end hurricane.

Earl’s prospects do look better for strength, and likely to pass east of Bermuda at this point, but it’s being watched more carefully there just in case there is a westward pull.

Earl is forecast to become the seasons first major hurricane later in the week.

Here is a wide image of Earl. There are other disturbances out in the western Atlantic as well that may turn into something too.

So in a way there isn’t a lot of weather to talk about locally for now, but there’s always weather to talk about.

Lots of great pictures lately including this one from Vicki Anderson Dolt.

Joe