KANSAS CITY, Mo. — As I start this blog… it’s just pouring outside. It’s not going to last for long. And actually, I’ve missed out on the overnight rains that created 1-3 inches of rain in some areas, leading to some flooding, and already a record amount of rain up at KCI for the last day of the month: 2.58 inches through 8 a.m. is the record so far, and we’re not done.

Last night I felt the watches coming out from the Storm Prediction Center were too generous in terms of the scope. The initial Tornado Watch was a bit of a stretch to come this far east. It included parts of the metro when there was a question of whether we’d even get a storm. It did include Johnson County on the Kansas side for their first watch in three years (which is astounding as I’ve blogged and talked about). That watch was cancelled three hours early, then replaced with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with the western side of Kansas City being on the eastern end of that watch.

Overall though, there was little severe weather aside from a storm or two that did produce some 1-plus inch hail in northeast Kansas. The main thing with most of the storms has been the heavy rains, and now the issue is how the storms this morning rearrange the atmosphere for today locally. This was a driving point of mine last night on the news.

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Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Periods of rain/storms this morning with a lull to some extent developing towards lunch. Then renewed development is possible mainly south of the metro this afternoon. Perhaps some stronger storms in a couple of counties south of the metro towards Pleasanton, Butler, Clinton and Sedalia in Missouri. Temperatures locally are going to struggle as expected. Highs in the mid-70s.

Tonight: Periods of rain and storms. Locally heavy rains are possible as well. Lows down to near 60.

Tomorrow: Not a lot better really, but cooler with highs in the mid-60s.

Thursday: Sunny and nicer with highs in the 70s.

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Discussion:

Well… it’s raining! A lot.

It seems that these brief incursions of hotter weather have been knocked down after a few days by some heavy rains. This isn’t the first time in the last few weeks this has happened and there are signs of this continuing into the first couple of weeks of June as well.

Here is radar…

So the emphasis for the heavier rains through lunch will be from Kansas City southwards.

Aside from some small hail mainly on the Missouri side, I don’t think severe weather is expected today in the metro.

As I talked about ad nauseum last night and despite some outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, we’re not really set up for severe weather today since things are happening this morning which are rearranging the atmosphere essentially. It’s tough to say where the actual cold front is this morning since the air in the Plains has been worked over by storms and there are outflows from the rain-cooled air all over the place. But I think the front itself is still towards the west of the region with an outflow now east and south of the metro.

It’s a complicated surface map that’s for sure.

So what does this mean for the rain in the next 36 hours? Well, the winds above the surface aren’t that complicated. They’re blowing from the from the south-southwest to the north-northeast up and over the outflow that has been generated by the thunderstorms overnight and this morning. Let’s go up to about 5,000 feet or so.

I’ve highlighted the area where the air at that altitude is converging or coming together. That generates more lift

So you have several things coming together to generate lift and more rain. With an atmosphere swollen with moisture, it’s easy to generate torrential rainfall. So far 1-3 inches has fallen in a good swath of the metro at least.

Through 8 a.m.

Notice areas southeast of the metro: not so much rain. That’s changing though as I type this blog.

So in effect what all this rain is doing is shifting the atmosphere around. Here’s how:

  1. It’s cooling it down. We may only be in the 70s today.
  2. Releasing the instability
  3. In time, stabilizing the lower part of the atmosphere
  4. Pushing the rain-cooled air further south

All this should help to reduce our severe weather threats this afternoon. This is what I was harping on all night last night.

Back to last night, here are the severe weather reports:

There were 4-5 reports of tornados in Minnesota. More may be added to that after surveys today.

Closer to home:

There were a few reports including near golf ball sized hail in Muscotah, Kansas

Remember yesterday northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri was in an area of “enhanced” risk, a level 3 out of 5 for severe storms. Anecdotally and “arm chair quarterbacking,” it seems that we’ve seen more “aggressive” forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center this season, especially closer to our area. I sort of feel like what was a “slight” risk in the past is now an enhanced risk in 2022, sort of a step up.

Perhaps it’s just me though, but I think I’ve noticed this, at least for our area a few times already this year. Just a random thought.

Anyway… we’re not done with the rain.

Rain on Thursday in Kansas City

We should see some additional rains this morning with a lull after awhile. For areas southeast of Kansas City, let’s watch the building instability later today. There is a risk of stronger storms down to the south in areas that may not be affected by all this morning rain, perhaps in the Clinton to Sedalia to Warsaw region in Missouri.

For areas farther north, we will continue to have chances of storms and rain into the afternoon. Instability is going to be tough to come by later today but there may be enough for a few stronger storms and perhaps some smaller hail. Something to watch for.

Overnight as various disturbances come out of the Plains and move towards and south of the metro, more rain is expected, perhaps on the heavy side as well. This will continue off and on into tomorrow as well with another 1-3 inches of rain possible, leading to some flooding again.

Flood Warnings and Flood Watches are out.

More may be added over the next 36 hours.

The good news is Thursday and Friday we get to dry out again with some nice weather.

At least the grass is still going to keep growing!

Our feature photo comes from Grizzle and his drone.

Joe