Joe’s Weather Blog: Friday questions and then more warmth (WED-12/8)

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We’re finally getting a good shot of sunshine this morning…and after a cold start in the mid 20s…things will be moderating this afternoon. Again by December standards…a pretty decent day overall. Then warmer air starts fighting back towards the area…tomorrow is set as a warmer day. Friday though is a bit of a question at this point. More on why in the discussion.

This pop of cold air coming in behind the system on Friday is a one day pop…and barely that…more like a 18 hour shot because we quickly go right back into a return of warmer air aloft at least later Saturday and then we’re mostly good to go for next week.

And still no significant snows expected locally for a while.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs around 50°

Tonight: Not quite as cold with lows dropping into the 30° range

Tomorrow: Warmer with highs back into the low to mid 60s

Friday: This is a toughie and depends on where a warm front sets up…could be in the 50s could be breaking a record near 70. There may be a rather impressive north to south gradient with those temperatures from Platte Co to Miami county. The record is 69°.

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Discussion:

Let’s start with a geological note. A decently strong 4.3 earthquake occurred after sunrise this morning. Some have felt it on the west side of the Metro.

Kansas earthquakes aren’t that uncommon…typically though they register as 2’s and 3’s. A 4.3 though is pretty impressive.

Onwards…

Next week is overall warm. The trick though is Friday locally and that will be tied to the progress of a warm front into the Metro area. Data this morning is trending farther north with the front…that’s good news for KC in terms of keeping us in the warmer air for another day. Last night and yesterday too for that matter…some data had us in the 30s (the NAM model) while other pieces of model data had us near 70°. I choose the other pieces of data based on my expectation that the NAM was perhaps too aggressive with the colder air pushing southwards.

The trick to that though is the NAM model handles these colder air masses better to some extent than the other models. So it was interesting to see it be so darn chilly…the model this morning though has switched to a milder solution.

I want to compare and contrast the model from last night and this morning.

Slide right for last night…and left for this morning’s new run

See the difference. Other models were warmer…I went with 66° and that appears to have been the correct choice regarding the forecast…actually will probably return to the upper 60s in my update this afternoon.

The record is 69°. This is doable…depending on any cloud issues.

The cold front itself will come through on Friday late afternoon/evening. It will likely come through dry as well as the dry stretch of weather is now approaching almost 25 days. IF there is any rain/sprinkles…it won’t amount to too much…perhaps SE of the Metro on Friday as the warmer air is moving through.

As mentioned there really isn’t too much of a push of cold air behind this except for a return on seasonable air on Saturday. Then we warm back up into next week.

There will ne a snowstorm up to the north of here…and there may actually be some flakes in far northern MO towards the IA border. The real issues though will be from I-80 northwards to the I-90 corridor.

That snow will be melting though next week. Here is the latest 6-10 day forecast…yeah that’s warm.

Here are the records…starting with Friday…

We may get close to a few of those next week depending on any random fronts that may switch the winds around from day to day.

Also of note…we’ve had 4 days with highs in the 60s so far this month. The record is 14 for December. We won’t get there BUT…getting more than 6 like what happened in 2015 is almost a lock. Heck we may get to 6 by Friday afternoon.

This is sort of interesting as well…the number of 70+ days in December. They are even rarer. We’ve already had one…

It will only take one more for us to tie this.

The records may start falling on Tuesday…maybe not here but in the Plains at least.

The squares represent record potential.

Snow lovers…I’ve got nothing exciting till maybe Christmas week…and even then don’t get you’re hopes up too high at this point.

The feature photo comes from @KansasHoops

Joe

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