We finished June 2.2° above average and at KCI at least, about 1/2″ below average. Many areas though are considerably drier and could really use some rain. The clay soils are showing some cracks, which isn’t that unusual really.

Overall the upcoming weekend won’t be terrible. The main issue may be through 2 p.m. Saturday or so with storms and rain moving through from the KS side to the MO side as the morning moves along.

Sunday overall looks OK and Monday should be OK as well. A lot of steam heat is coming though to finish the holiday weekend.

There is also the matter of today’s storm risk….

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Forecast

Today: Variable clouds and a bit muggier. There may be some scattered storms later today or this evening, but I’m not expecting much coverage at this point. Some of the storms could be strong for areas that are impacted. Highs in the mid to upper 80s, perhaps a bit hotter on the south side of the area.

Tonight: Variable clouds with storms increasingly likely towards daybreak. Lows near 70°

Tomorrow: Rain/storms at times through early afternoon then mostly cloudy. Not as warm with highs only in the upper 70s

Sunday: Hotter and more humid with highs near 90°. Heat indices near 100°. There is a small rain chance for a few hours in the morning

Monday: Hot and humid with highs into the 90s…high humidity as well

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Discussion

A weak front is bisecting the region Friday morning. There isn’t much wind associated with this and there isn’t a lot of “convergence” with it either. In other words, the two air masses that the front separates aren’t bumping into to each to strongly.

The front is more or less stationary at this point… it needs something to move it along.

To the south of the front, dew points are creeping closer to 70°. I think it was yesterday when I showed you that the higher dew points were well south of the area. They’ve been creeping northwards in the last 24 hours. The solid green color is the 70° dew point line.

With the front in the area this afternoon, and with some building instability that includes increased moisture, there is a recipe for storms, BUT… there isn’t a lot of convergence. We’re somewhat capped and things are just a bit off it appears for widespread storms.

It’s worth the mention of at least some scattered storms in the area, especially from the Kansas City metro area southwards later this afternoon or early this evening.

As we’ve talked about all week, and in the big scheme of things (at least so far), the forecasts have been nails with the rain potential for the holiday weekend. The highest rain/storm chance is during the first part of Saturday into Saturday mid-afternoon.

The hope is that the rain and storms will move away at some point towards 2 – 4 PM tomorrow giving us leftover rain cooled air and temperatures that will below average for the start of the holiday weekend.

The rain amounts will vary from 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ or so. Since some thunderstorms are into the mix, some areas could see more if they get repeated clusters of storms.

I’m not overly excited about the rain chances on Sunday, but there may be some storms/showers around in the morning, but I don’t think the coverage is overly big with this.

After that the focus is on the heat and humidity. It will be nasty in both departments into the middle of next week. The rain we see over the next couple of days may have to do us for awhile, because I’m not too excited about a lot of rain next week. There may be some rain on Thursday, but it’s not set in stone by any means at this point.

The EURO has this idea…

GFS isn’t too off from this with highs basically in the lower to upper 90s all the way through.

Morning lows will be in the 70s to near 80°

Dew points will likely be in the 70s for most of this. That means steam heat is the other thing. So expect heat indices being in the 100-108+° range.

It’s an overall hot pattern that may or may not yield disturbances coming down from the western Plains. IF the future “heat wave generator” set’s up shop on the “wrong” place, and it diverts the disturbances towards the northeast of the region, we may not get much rain after tomorrow.

IF this “generator” is more west of the area, and we’re on the eastern side of the heat, then we may be vulnerable to some rain chances.

We’ll dive into the prospects on the next blog.

Have a great holiday weekend!

The feature photo is from Patrick Redding

Joe