KANSAS CITY, Mo. — As we finish off the month of June, a warm and average wet month officially at KCI, but not so much wet on the south side of the metro though.
We’re focused on the holiday weekend that is right around the corner. We’ve been talking about various rain chances for about a week now and things are coming into focus as we get closer.
The main rain chances appear to be on Saturday and Sunday, with most of the timing more so during the first part of the day as opposed to the later afternoon hours.
Some areas may see well over 1 inch of rain and so as I’ve been saying, have a plan B ready. Don’t cancel all your plans for the weekend, but yes, we will be having some rain issues at times.
Kansas City Forecast:
Today: Sunny and hot with highs into the lower 90s and a decent wind gusting to around 25 mph at times.
Tonight: Clear and mild with lows in the upper 60s.
Tomorrow: A front comes through in the morning. There may be some scattered showers/storms around during the day, but overall not too bad. Still warm, but not as hot as today, although there will be more mugginess in the area. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Saturday: Rain likely with storms in the morning into the early to mid-afternoon, then drier I think for the evening. Cooler, but humid with highs closer to 80 degrees.
Sunday: More morning rain chances then warm and humid with highs back into the upper 80s.
Monday: Seasonable with a smaller chance of some scattered storms around. Highs near 90 degrees.
We continue to enjoy low dew points and drier than usual late June air in the region and today will continue that trend overall. Dew points should be in the lower 60s this afternoon which is very reasonable for late June.
The latest surface map showing the temperatures in red and the dew points in green show that the dew points in the 60s are down in eastern Texas and then increase into the 70s farther away.
This dry air is one of the reasons why the morning lows have been tanking. This morning we dropped into the lower 60s again despite the south winds that I thought might prop us up a bit.
These low dew points are going to stay with us for the rest of the day I think. They will increase a bit tomorrow, but really not get too high. That is one of the reasons why the risk of storms and rain is not the highest tomorrow, and even if there is activity out there, it should be scattered in nature.
So bad front timing, the AM, poor moisture quality, and weak instability aren’t great setups to getting widespread rain in the region for Friday at least.
Saturday morning though may offer better chances. A disturbance will be created today in Arizona that will ride the flow aloft through Colorado tomorrow and during the first part of the day along the Interstate 70 corridor towards the metro on Saturday.
That soon-to-be disturbance will flow along the winds above us, moving basically along the I-70 corridor and coming into the region early Saturday morning. Here is the morning run of the HRRR model showing the disturbance approaching central Kansas. This would be for 1 a.m. Saturday.
As this comes eastwards, rain will be in advance of it, and also may be ongoing towards northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, with the small little disturbances in Nebraska moving southeastwards. So a combination of waves may impact us in the morning on Saturday.
Just how much rain we get is still a bit of a question. The chance appears highest through about early afternoon or so. Then by later in the day, we should have some sinking air behind the wave, perhaps start to get breaks in the clouds and make a run towards 80°.
With the rainy pockets (and IF the clouds are slower to clear), some areas may only be in the 70s for the start of the holiday weekend… not exactly pool weather.
Another chance of rain comes early on Sunday, perhaps not as widespread, but will be connected to a disturbance moving southeast coming out of Nebraska. It appears the bulk of the day on Sunday should be OK and noticeably hotter and more humid. Dew points are likely heading back into the 70s over the weekend and into next week.
Monday should overall be OK, perhaps some isolated heat of the afternoon storms around but overall probably good and hot!
There will be a lot of mid-level moisture around the area next week. If there is some sort of disturbance caught in the flow that ripples our way, we could see some more rain later in the week. Overall, Monday through Wednesday look steamy and dry. Perhaps something next Thursday.
So seeing this on the 8-14 forecast from the CPC isn’t too surprising.
I still wonder though about whether the core of heat gets shoved a bit farther westwards towards the Rockies allowing more disturbances to flow in the Plains and placing us somewhat, at times, into northwest flow aloft, allowing various storm chances over the after the 7th or 8th or so.
That is a discussion for another day.
The feature photo today comes from Jim Dollins up in Kearney, Missouri.