Joe’s Weather Blog: Hot with a storm chaser (THU-8/5)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The drier more pleasant air that we’ve enjoyed since the weekend started is now slowly giving way to a more humid air mass that will be with us over the coming 5-10 days or so. Dew points will be creeping up and while nothing too high is expected for the next few days (and we’re starting to bake out the ground a bit as the grass is browning up), it will still get rather muggy in the area into the weekend.

Today is more or less transition day. Lots of clouds are expected and there may be some scattered storms around later this afternoon at some point. Most areas may well remain dry. The next decent chance of rain is showing up Saturday night into Sunday morning.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds, mild and a bit more humid although really nothing too muggy. Highs in the mid-80s.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and mild with lows in the 70° range.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, hotter and muggier. breezy as well with highs in the lower 70s.

Saturday: Ditto with a bit more wind. Highs in the lower-to-mid-90s. There may be some scattered evening storms north and west of the Interstate 35 corridor.

Sunday: Rain chances appear highest in the morning. Then some sunshine with highs in the lower 90s.

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Discussion:

It won’t exactly be a terrible day today. Lots of outdoor plans are OK, just again remember that there may be a few pop ups out there. The better chance of this is after 4 p.m. or so it seems. There were a few showers overnight and there are a couple northeast of Kansas City this morning. Here’s radar:

There is a fair amount of clouds out there today. Those will take a while to sort through.

It really won’t be overly humid today. Dew points this morning are still in the lower 60s to start the day. They may creep up though as the afternoon moves along.

The 65° dew points are south of here and really there are only a hand full of 70° dew points in the bottom of the map below.

South winds will slowly work that moisture farther north with time over the coming days. Remember the higher the dew point, the muggier it feels and eventually the higher the heat index goes. With highs on Saturday in the lower-to-mid-90s and dew points in the 70° range, heat indices will be close to 100°-105° give or take.

The pattern overall for the first of next week is also pretty toasty as well.

A look at the average temperature anomalies spread out over a five-day period from Monday into early Saturday look like this next week.

Hotter for sure, probably a nice run of 95° with a couple of degrees either side of that day to day it seems. There may be a front towards the end of next week or into the weekend.

The better rain chances (on a bit of a more widespread scale) may well come Saturday night into Sunday midday. That rain will be very welcome, and right now it does look somewhat promising, perhaps even a few stronger storms in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas later Saturday. Those will need to be watched because some sort of outflow or something may impact the I-35 corridor towards the mid-to-later evening hours. And with the concert happening out at Arrowhead, there is a chance of rain/lightning sneaking into the complex. Something to pay attention to. I alluded to this last night and will take a deeper dive this afternoon into that forecast.

Assuming the storms are around on Sunday, we may get a bit of a heat break that day. Should be pretty humid though and that will be steam heat then building with higher dew points next week.

A couple of tidbits for you: The monsoonal pattern in the southwest U.S. has been beneficial aside from some bad flash flooding that happens.

Look at the rain compared to average out there for the last 30 days.

The blue areas represent above-average amounts of moisture. The better rain though has avoided much of central and northern California. Their fires are still ongoing and getting worse. The Dixie fire in particular is bad and closing in on 300,000 acres burned. This was heartbreaking to see yesterday.

The folks at NOAA issued an updated tropical season forecast yesterday. I believe we’re now up to the F storm, which will be Fred.

And there are a couple of candidates out there. The one off the coast of Africa may be something at some point later in the weekend.

Hey, did you know we’re lost about 50 minutes of daylight since the first day of summer? We’re starting to lose about 2 minutes a day now, and that continues until around the first day of winter in December. So it goes.

Back to the western US: There has actually been some improvement on the drought out there, especially in terms of the worst of the worst of the drought. On the left is the current drought status and on the right from last month. Notice Arizona and a few other parts of the west are off the “exceptional” drought status.

As I showed you yesterday though, this isn’t helping California all that much, and at this point, not really helping the reservoirs out there.

The feature photo comes from Kaden up in Liberty, Missouri, another very smoky sunset yesterday.

Joe

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