Joe’s Weather Blog: Impressive rains (finally) and more coming (MON-10/11)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Well when I left for my staycation, it was getting drier and drier. It was a dry September and a dry first week of October. Last night though, we caught up in a major way. Two to 3.5 inches of rain fell in the metro, and it was heavy and widespread for the first time in weeks and weeks. Needed for sure, and hopefully it might help out our slowly developing fall colors in the coming next two weeks as we come into the peak color time of the year.

There is more coming as well with another system coming in for Tuesday night into Wednesday and perhaps another one before the weekend, setting up a nice fall weekend in the region.

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Forecast:

Today: Rain winds down through lunch, but windy conditions continue today with gusts to 35 mph. Highs in the mid-60s with hopefully some later afternoon sunshine.

Tonight: Fair and cooler with lows in the upper 40s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and nicer with highs back into the mid-70s.

Wednesday: Showers/storms developing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before drier air moves in later Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the mid-70s.

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Discussion:

That was a big-time rain overnight. Winds increased as well in the wee hours of the morning, and those gusty north winds continue as I start this blog. Tell you what, if this would have been a winter storm, it would’ve been an epic blizzard that would still be going on this morning.

Take a look at some of the rain totals from overnight into this morning through 8:30 a.m.

Via Stormwatch

This was a widespread rain for a change. It seems like we haven’t had much of that type of rain in the last couple of months.

via CoCoRaHS

This is an impressive surface map this morning.

The reason for the wind is the sharp change in air pressure in the region for the core of the surface storm outwards.

That’s pretty impressive. And yes, I did wonder if this was a winter storm what would’ve happened…

Very impressive storm that will gradually “fill” (weaken) and move away over the next 24 hours into the Great Lakes area.

Timing: 18Z 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM…3Z is 10PM

As this storm pulls away, another comes in.

There will be differences though in the track of the storms. Here is the storm this morning (from about 18,000 feet). Notice its location:

Now take a look at the storm for Wednesday:

The rain won’t be as heavy for us, but there will be a decent early-fall snowstorm with perhaps blizzard conditions across the eastern half of Wyoming and perhaps into the Black Hills area.

As this next storm comes into the northern Plains, a rapid increase in dew points will begin later Tuesday night. Dew points will surge into the mid-to-upper 60s as the next cold front attached to the storm moves through the region towards lunch on Wednesday.

The dynamics of the system will be decent though especially across the western Plains where some stronger storms are possible later Tuesday into Wednesday AM perhaps. Those storms will rapidly move towards the north-northeast, and I can’t rule out perhaps some hail in the metro or a strong wind gust with the storms early Wednesday.

We’ll see how this all comes together. Sometimes when one strong system comes through (this morning) and another comes on its heels, things don’t evolve as well as they could happen due to returning moisture issues.

Then another strong upper-level system comes through on Friday. Despite a better storm track and one that comes closer to what happened this morning, the moisture may be really lacking with this next system, cutting potential rain to some degree. We should get some rain from this though as well, 1/4 to 1 inch.

So all of a sudden, after not being able to buy a drop of rain, now we have two other systems that could give us 1/2 to 2 inches of additional rains this week (after the system today).

Then there’s this:

So that was a “fun” tweet I guess. Folks took it for what it was worth. I thought I’d share this morning what the GFS model is showing now for around that time.

The GFS giveth and then taketh away.

Although the EURO for that date, which there is little skill for during the transitional time of the year, shows this:

It’s picking out something, certainly temperature-wise.

We’ll see but things will be more interesting on the backside of the month, and a reminder that it has snowed for the last three Octobers.

Our feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson.

Joe

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