Joe’s Weather Blog: Incoming storms and some ‘fall’ signs showing up (TUE-8/31)

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Radar is lit up pretty good this morning. One complex skirted through parts of the area before daybreak and another is dropping southeastwards out of Nebraska and Iowa into northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. This is showing some signs of weakening. As I type this, it’s 60 miles northwest of the downtown area.

There are more details to pass along concerning Ida which will be a flood-maker (and perhaps a bad one) in the northeast and mid-Atlantic area, that will be a big issue especially tomorrow. There is a severe weather threat associated with that as well.

Finally, some signs continue to point towards a real cold front to come into the picture, perhaps next week, bringing with it a dose of more comfortable air into the area.

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Forecast:

Today: Storms arrive towards 10-11 a.m. and move through. Locally heavy rains are possible. Temperatures will initially warm up before the storms then drop to around 65-70° in the storms, then try to recover into the 80s later today. We may not get that warm in the rain-cooled air.

Tonight: Fair and cooler with lows in the 60s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, rain chances about 20%. Highs in the mid-80s.

Thursday: A comfortable morning then warmer with highs well into the 80s.

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Discussion:

Let’s start with the incoming rain and storms approaching Kansas City as of this writing.

The satellite loop shows that the tops of the clouds are warming. This indicates that the worst of the storms is easing somewhat. There are still some gusty winds with the storms and locally heavy rain. We’ll see how well they hold together locally as they move southeast into an area that already had some strong storms move through a few hours ago.

The timing of the rain with a pocket of rain-cooled air coming in with the storms will drop temperatures as we head towards the afternoon.

I’ve circled the rain cooled air mass coming into the area.

Things should settle down after this.

Meanwhile…

Fires out west remain bad. A couple of weeks ago I first mentioned the Caldor fire and said that this might turn into a big deal. Well it is and continues to do so as it rips towards the southern part of Lake Tahoe aided by strong winds today. Evacuations have been underway there for the past day or so.

Hot spots and additional new fires have developed. Strong winds are taking embers and starting new fires over and beyond where the firefighters are working. This is why the area of containment actually dropped yesterday.

On the far right side towards the top is South Lake Tahoe. It’s a bad situation for sure and won’t get better today with the winds gusting to over 35 mph in that area.

As a matter of fact, some of the ski resorts were using their snow-making machines to try and get water on the area up there to save the buildings.

On the other side of the country are the remains of Ida. As I mentioned yesterday, Ida will be likely retired. The “I” storms are the storms that seem to be retired the most. This is from before Ida even came together… interesting.

Ida though now turns into a big flood maker for the northeast U.S. As I type this, 87 million people are under Flash flood watches.

Also note the watches in the southwest U.S. as the remains and moisture from what was Nora come into the desert region, with even more rain for them. Amazing after a wet monsoon.

Ida’s moisture will create a large swath of 6-12 inch rains, and the concern is flooding in the mountain areas on the northeast.

Meanwhile out west…

Back to Ida for some tidbits…

The feature photo is an appropriate one today from William Johnson out in Bates City, Missouri from a couple of weeks ago.

Joe

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