It’s a delightful start to the day in the region as cooler and drier air is moving through the area to start our day. The worst of the weekend heat has been suppressed towards the southern US and will stay away from us for a few days. That’s the good news.

The bad news is two-fold…1) the rain chances look anemic for the next 7+ days…and 2) odds are the nasty summer heat will be returning in all it’s glory over the weekend and early next week with another run towards 100° possible before it breaks again later next week.

Let’s dive in…

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Forecast:

Today: Partly to mostly sunny skies. Pleasant with highs in the mid 80s with lower dew points and light winds

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the 60-65° range

Tomorrow: Pleasant for August with highs in the mid 80s

Thursday: A tad more seasonable with highs in the upper 80s

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Discussion:

Well the cold front was certainly welcome…for the 3rd time this year KCI hit 100° over the past weekend…and it seems to be the winds being more active is a key contributor to this happening. We almost hit it a 4th time on Sunday…but there were just a few too many cirrus clouds filtering out the sunshine.

Today though we are somewhat firmly in the more comfortable air mass that has come down from the northern Plains. Combined with light winds…we in good shape for the next 48 hours or so.

Dew points have also come down nicely from the lower 70s and data suggests we should remain comfortable for a couple of more days. This will also allow the mornings to drop off nicely to perhaps close to 60° with 50s not out of the question in some areas as well.

So this is all mostly good news. There are issues though. The rain from the showers and/or thunderstorms that moved into the Metro yesterday morning was so scattered that it really didn’t help out that much. There were some locally heavy downpours in a few areas but overall most got little to nothing with the frontal passage. This to me is somewhat strange because breaking an impressive hot air mass typically creates big rains locally…and while the front came through during the worst time of the day to build up instability for the front to work with…typically we would at least see some decent rains…and yet there was so little.

This is problematic because the forecast over the coming 7+ days doesn’t appear to be suggestive of much in the way of rain around these parts.

This is going to be a dry scenario because we’re sort of trapped between a cooler and drier air mass for the next 48 hours…then a warmer and more humid air mass that lacks a trigger for convection into the weekend…then a hotter air mass that won’t allow convection as the “hot weather generator” moves into the Plains. That last reason should send temperatures soaring!

All models show a building dome of heat in the Plains…centered perhaps just towards the west of the region. This will allow the temperatures of the atmosphere to get hotter and hotter. For example…let’s go up to about 5,000 feet and show you the temperature anomalies at that level.

Saturday afternoon…

Sunday afternoon

Monday afternoon…

The data above is actually the ensemble data…an average of some 51 runs of the EURO members…it flattens out the extremes and yet the model is still really strong with the anomalous heat in the Plains…also remember that the data above is in °C…so about double that for °F.

Very impressive. Here is the raw output for highs and lows from yesterday’s model run.

Sunday -> perhaps next Tuesday could make a serious 100° run.

The one thing that perhaps is a bit different this time through is a potential lack of surface wind. The times we get to near or to 100° up at KCI at least were on breezy to marginal windy days…20-25 MPH gusts etc. Right now the data isn’t showing that.

So buckle up…we still have plenty of summer heat to deal with…

The feature photo is from Matthew Smith…it’s definitely sunflower season!

Infrequent blogs this week due to the lull in the weather.

Joe