KANSAS CITY, Mo. — We are one week away from fall starting and on cue, we’re going to likely see a significant change in the weather around the Plains. That change is a sharply cooler air mass that will be moving into the region, and with it comes a hope for widespread rain to move into the region as well.
The rain from yesterday was sparse and negligible in the area, as somewhat expected. So the dryness that continues wasn’t helped by this.
The chances of rain look pretty small until next Tuesday.
Today: Sunny and mild with highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight: Clear and seasonable with lows near 60°.
Tomorrow: Warmer and breezy with highs in the mid-80s.
Friday: About the same with a few more clouds.
So let’s keep this short and sweet.
It’s been pretty dry for the last couple of weeks.
Anomalies show a small area of excessive rains in southeast Kansas, but that’s about it.
KCI has had about 1.9 inches of rain which is about 1/4 inch below average. All of that rain came on the 3rd and 4th. Not expecting much more till about the 21st or so. There is a weak front that might create some rain to the northwest of here on Friday that needs to be monitored.
It’ll also be windy and generally mild this month so far. We’re running about 2° above average and today won’t hurt that.
A warm stretch is coming for the next five days or so. The change though has been persistent in the data for a couple of days and it’s connected to a strong dip in the jet stream coming into the Plains region connected to an upper-level storm moving through the northern U.S.
This next map shows the upper-level storm at around 18,000 feet.
As we work our way down through the atmosphere, this will represent a cold pocket of air, down to 5,000 feet or so. These are the anomalies compared to average:
And finally towards the surface, these are the model forecasted highs for Wednesday:
Some data isn’t quite as cool with those numbers on Wednesday afternoon and this relates to where the core of the upper-level low will be located. If it’s farther north, the worst of the chill might be taken a bit farther north as well. Long ways out, but a significant change in the weather is likely during the middle of next week.
It’s timed out to the first day of fall, next Wednesday.
Meanwhile until then, warmer weather is likely with above-average temperatures through next Tuesday. Highs are typically closer to 80° during this time of the year. We’ll exceed that.
Also of note with this is the rain situation. We need it and this should bring with it a widespread rain into the region.
There are still timing questions with this: Will it rain Tuesday or Wednesday morning, or both? That will be detailed as we head into the weekend.
Enjoy the final days of summer… it will feel like it!
The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson out in Richmond, Missouri.